Crude Oil Price Forecast: Pullback May Clear Path to Higher Targets

Crude Oil Retests Support Zone

Crude oil retreated further on Tuesday, reaching a session low of $62.31 to retest a dynamic support zone. That pullback successfully touched prior resistance from the top boundary of a falling bull wedge pattern. A breakout above the wedge and the 20-Day moving average was confirmed last week, followed by additional strength with a close above the 50-Day average. These signals indicated improving underlying demand, but short-term weakness has persisted into this week.

Watching the $61.84 – $62.31 Zone

The day’s low also aligned with the upper end of a $61.84 to $62.31 support band, an area that previously held in four separate tests. As long as buyers continue to defend this zone, the wedge breakout remains valid. A failure below $61.84, however, would shift attention toward the next support confluence near $60.66, reinforced by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Until then, the pullback looks like a normal retest within a broader reversal setup.

Upside Targets Remain in Focus

Assuming support holds, crude oil should be positioned for renewed upside follow-through. Last week’s high of $66.77 marked the initial breakout attempt, stalling just below the 200-Day average at $67.21. That high also produced a potential bullish reversal with a higher swing high versus the September 2 pivot, though confirmation requires a close above $66.77. If achieved, momentum could build toward the 200-Day average and possibly higher Fibonacci retracement levels.

Weekly Chart Adds Perspective

On the weekly timeframe, last week’s high of $65.72 took on added significance, aligning with resistance at the 20-Week average. Since August, the 20-Week line has consistently acted as dynamic resistance, capping rallies even when intraweek breakouts occurred. A weekly close above the 20-Week average would be a meaningful shift, signaling that buyers are regaining long-term control. Until then, the wedge breakout and the higher swing high structure suggest growing bullish potential, though the burden remains on buyers to confirm with a strong close.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.