Case-Shiller, HPI US Housing Data Shows Signs of Resilience

Highlights

• June marks 4th month of metro price hikes.
• Chicago, Cleveland, NY lead annual gains.
• U.S. houses up 3% YoY, 1.7% QoQ.

U.S. Home Price Landscape for June 2023

In the latest data release, S&P Dow Jones Indices showcased results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, a barometer for U.S. home prices. June’s data highlighted consistent month-over-month price hikes across 20 primary metro areas, marking the fourth consecutive month of such increases.

Yearly Metrics Shift Toward Stabilization

The national picture presented mixed results. The comprehensive U.S. National Home Price NSA Index documented no annual change for June, witnessing a shift from the -0.4% decline observed in May. The 10-City Composite recorded a -0.5% dip year-over-year, demonstrating recovery from the previous month’s -1.1% drop. Meanwhile, the 20-City Composite revealed a -1.2% annual decrease, slightly improving from the preceding month’s -1.7% dip and surpassing the projected -1.5% contraction.

Cities Leading the Charge

Among the 20 cities assessed, Chicago, Cleveland, and New York emerged as front-runners for year-over-year gains. Chicago’s 4.2% surge placed it at the pinnacle, closely followed by Cleveland’s 4.1% uptick and New York’s 3.4% growth. A balanced scenario was evident as half of the cities reported annual price reductions, while the remaining witnessed hikes. Moreover, 13 cities exhibited accelerated pricing relative to May 2023.

Broader U.S. Housing Market Trends

Supplementary data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) offered a broader perspective. The FHFA House Price Index (HPI®) indicated a 3.0% year-over-year appreciation in U.S. house prices from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023. This appreciation further consolidated with a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter growth by June 2023. Dr. Anju Vajja of FHFA emphasized the surge in prices amidst dwindling inventory, with certain western states being exceptions with their declining year-over-year figures.

Short-Term Forecast

The current dynamics in the U.S. housing market appear cautiously optimistic. Despite mixed results on the national and city level, the broader trend points toward an upswing in house prices, suggesting a mildly bullish stance.