China’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Expansion
On Monday, December 2, economic indicators from China shed light on the effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus measures.
The all-important Caixin Manufacturing PMI increased from 50.3 in October to 51.5 in November, a moderate pickup in activity.
The November Survey revealed significant trends:
- Total new orders increased at the fastest pace in three-and-a-half years.
- Orders from overseas contributed to the surge in demand for Chinese goods after falling in September and October.
- Firms attributed the jump in demand to new product launches and post-US presidential election stockpiling.
- Despite rising demand, firms remained cautious about hiring, with headcounts falling for the third successive month.
- Shifting focus to inflation, input prices rose at the quickest pace in five months, due to higher raw material prices. Output prices increased at the fastest rate since October 2023 as manufacturers passed rising raw material costs onto their customers.
The November numbers highlighted a marked improvement in domestic demand, suggesting Beijing’s stimulus measures are bolstering the economic recovery.
However, external risks remain. The recent surge in demand could stem from preemptive stockpiling ahead of potential US tariffs. Notably, President-elect Trump has threatened 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, a less severe measure compared to earlier warnings of 60% tariffs.
Expert Views on China’s Manufacturing Sector
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group, commented on the November Survey, stating,
“Since late September, the synergy of existing policies and additional stimulus measures has constantly acted on the market, which is reflected in the improved economic performance in the past two months. Positive factors have increased, which contributed to an accelerated economic recovery in November.”
The Market Reaction to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI
The Hang Seng Index reacted to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, climbing to a morning high of 19,690.
AUD/USD Price Forecast
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See all AUD/USD forecastsOn Monday, December 2, the Hang Seng Index was up 1.30% to 19,677.
In the forex market, the AUD/USD also responded positively to the PMI data, climbing from $0.65036 to a post-report high of $0.65066. However, the numbers failed to counter a stronger US dollar. On Monday, the AUD/USD was down 0.16% to $0.64987.
