COVID-19 Drives Demand for the Dollar, with Very Little Else to Distract the MarketsThe Dollar finds support as the rise in COVID-19 cases continues. More bad news today and expect risk aversion to linger.
Earlier in the Day:
It was another relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar. The Kiwi Dollar was in focus in the early part of the day.
Away from the economic calendar COVID-19 continued to be a major source of angst for the markets, as new cases surged in the U.S.
Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers
On Thursday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 223,514 to 12,386,140. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 222,368. The daily increase was higher than Wednesday’s rise while higher than 190,716 new cases from the previous Thursday.
Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 1,190 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 986 new cases on Wednesday. On the previous Thursday, 1,027 new cases had been reported.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 61,067 to 3,219,999 on Thursday. On Wednesday, the total number of cases had increased by 62,416. On Thursday, 2nd July, a total of 48,853 new cases had been reported.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Electronic card retail sales increased by 16.3% in June, following a 78.9% jump in May.
According to NZ Stats,
By Industry, the movements were:
- Durables, up NZ$310m (24%), with consumables up NZ$205m (11%).
- Motor vehicles (excl. fuel) rose NZ$45m (26%), while spending on fuel fell NZ$84m (15%).
- Spending on apparel rose NZ18m (5.7%), while spending on hospitality fell NZ$74m (7.3%).
In more detail:
- Monthly spending on medical and other health care services reached a record high in Jun-20. Spending jumped by 20% from Jun-19.
- Spending at restaurants, cafes, and takeaway was nearly back to pre-COVID-19 levels, while down by 2.4% on Jun-19.
- Pent up demand led to a further rise in spending on long-lasting goods. Furniture, electrical, and hardware retailing was up by 27% from Jun-19.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.65703 to $0.65691 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.26% to $0.6553.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
A lack of stats leaves the EUR in the hands of market risk appetite on the day. With the ECB in action next week, COVID-19 and geopolitics will be key drivers early on in the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.06% to $1.1278.
For the Pound
It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due to provide the Pound with direction.
A lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of Brexit and market risk sentiment.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 10% to $1.2593.
Across the Pond
It’s also a relatively busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Later today, wholesale inflation figures for June are due out later today.
Barring particularly dire numbers, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the Dollar and risk sentiment.
Expect any chatter from Washington and COVID-19 updates to remain in focus.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.16% to 96.850.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the calendar. June’s employment figures are due out later today. Expect the numbers to have a material impact on the Loonie, with the BoC in action next week.
Away from the economic calendar, sentiment towards the economic outlook and demand for crude will also provide direction. The IEA’s monthly report will draw attention today amidst the risk-off sentiment.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.3594 against the U.S Dollar.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.