Economic Data Takes a Backseat. The Focus Will be on Electoral College Votes…The markets are in for a choppy day ahead as Electoral College vote counts roll in. Expect economic data to have a limited impact on the day.
Earlier in the Day:
It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
Away from the economic calendar, the U.S Presidential Election remained the key driver as results begin to trickle in. As the vote count continued, Florida was the main area of focus for the markets early on.
For the Kiwi Dollar
3rd quarter employment figures were in focus. Quarter-on-quarter, employment fell by 0.8% in the 3rd quarter, following a 0.4% decline in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.8% decline.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.3% in the 3rd quarter, however. Economists had forecast an unemployment rate of 5.4%.
According to NZ Stats,
- The number of unemployed increased by a record of 37,000 to hit 151,000 in the third quarter.
- In the global financial crisis, the number of unemployed had increased by a more modest 18,000.
- There were 22,000 fewer employed people in the 3rd quarter when compared with the 2nd
- The underutilization rate rose to 13.2%.
- As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate also saw its largest quarterly increase on record.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.67050 to $0.66686 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.06% to $0.6682.
For the Aussie Dollar
Retail sales fell by 1.1% in September, following on from a 4% slide in August. Economists had forecasted a 1.5% decline.
According to the ABS,
- Household goods retailing and food retailing led the way down, with declines of 3.6% and 1.5% respectively.
- Other retailing (-0.7%), and clothing, footwear, & personal accessory retailing (-1.1%) also saw falls.
- There were increases in cafes, restaurants, & food services (3.5%) and department stores (1.0%).
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71819 to $0.71646 upon release of the figures that preceded China service sector PMI numbers. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.35% to $0.7139.
Out of China
The Caixin Services PMI increased from 54.8 to 56 8in October.
According to the October survey,
- The rate of expansion was the 2nd quickest for over a decade, driven by a marked increase in total new work.
- New work from overseas, however, declined as a result of the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in key export markets.
- Staffing levels were on the rise as a result of the jump in new orders that was the 3rd steepest since September 2010.
- As a result of a pickup in the pace of hiring, outstanding workloads rose only marginally and softer than in September.
- Optimism also improved, with service sector firms the most optimistic since April 2012.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71468 to $0.71394 upon release of the figures.
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.11% ¥104.60 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar.
Key stats include October service PMI numbers for Italy and Spain.
Finalized composite and service PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
Expect the Eurozone’s services and composite PMIs to have the greatest influence.
Spanish unemployment figures that are also due out should have a muted impact on the EUR.
Away from the economic calendar, updates on Brexit, COVID-19, and the U.S Presidential Election will remain key drivers.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.26% to $1.1685.
For the Pound
It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. October’s finalized Services and Composite PMIs are due out later today.
Barring a downward revision to prelim figures, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the Pound.
Away from the economic calendar, Brexit and U.S politics will remain key drivers. With England in lockdown mode, expect the Pound to see limited upside, however, ahead of the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday’s.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.25% to $1.3027.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar. Key stats include the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers for October and the ADP’s nonfarm employment change figures for October.
Expect both sets of numbers to garner some interest on the day.
Trade data and the Markit Survey’s finalized services and composite PMIs should have a muted impact on the Dollar.
Away from the economic calendar, expect the U.S Presidential Election to continue to influence mid-week.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.11% to 93.659.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic data front, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.27% to C$1.3180 against the U.S Dollar.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.