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Nikhil Khandelwal


After the Federal Reserve and the RBA, today, the RBNZ also opted for an ease in the monetary policy. Notably, the policymakers of RBNZ have made a steep cut of 50bps, lowering the interest rates to 1.00%. The market had expected the Central Bank to come up with a 25bps this time. Anyhow, the actual interest rate decision stunned the market participants. The Bank’s Meeting minutes mentioned about the escalating US-Sino trade tensions as the primary reason for such a massive cut. Following the RBNZ interest rate announcement, the Kiwi pair dropped almost 2%, reaching 0.6455 level, last touched in 2016.

NZDUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019

Meantime, Josh Williamson, an economist at Citi, said, “Offence is the best form of defense. Committee members were more concerned about global growth headwinds and the potential impact on the New Zealand economy via the trade channel.”

Quite noticeably, the NZD/USD pair was forming a rising wedge trading pattern, which had signaled for an upcoming bearish trend. Somehow, the pair had already broken down out of the aforementioned wedge, dragging the pair significantly. On the downside, the pair had thence breached, moving below the 0.6486 resistance-turned-support and 0.6432 support.



Last day, the Aussie pair had formed a Spinning top trading pattern on the backdrop of RBA’s 25bps rate cut. Today, as the day was approaching, the AUD/USD pair was almost near to the opening mark, forming a Dragonfly Doji pattern. Nonetheless, the pair showcased overall decent volatility throughout the day.

AUDUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019

The AUD/USD pair had touched the daily high near 0.6784 level and daily low near 0.6679 level. Despite that, the pair continued to trade, staying below the Ichimoku Clouds. Also, the base line and the conversion line of the Ichimoku Clouds stood above the pair, strengthening the bears. In the meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), continued to sustain near 24-27 range level since August 5. Earlier the day, the June Home Loans reported -0.9% over 0.6% market expectations. At the same time, upbeat June Investment Lending for Homes came out, providing relaxation to the buyers.


For the last six days in a row, the sturdy 1.2172 resistance handle had confined GBP/USD pair’s upside. And, the aforementioned resistance ensured to cap pair’s daily gains even today. Nevertheless, a significant counter trendline was restricting the upward movements. Even if the pair had breached and moved above this counter trendline, then that would have enabled fresh challenge on another overhead major counter trendline. Furthermore, the 50-day SMA had also crossed and moved below the 200-day SMA, marking a Death Cross. Also, the RSI remained stuck near 30 mark since the start of August.

GBPUSD 1 Day 07 August 2019

On the Brexit front, No-deal Brexit chaos appeared to alleviate a bit as French prepares for customs and regulatory checks. Hence, this shows that the government ensures to take all necessary precautions and measures to mitigate the risk following a No-deal Brexit scenario.


Robust resistance confluence made up of the 50-day, and 100-day SMA was forbidding the pair’s upward movements. If the pair had marched above this aforementioned resistance region, then that would have activated the significant 200-day SMA. On the economic docket, few low volatile June German Industrial data and France Trade data came out, disappointing the Fiber traders. Anyhow, as the day was approaching to closing, the EUR/USD remained positive but remained under the earlier mentioned SMA confluence.

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