German Consumer Confidence Gets a Boost with The ECB Economic Bulletin Next Up

After a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar, German consumers were in the spotlight going into the European session.

Consumer Confidence Jumps…

For April, the GfK Consumer Climate Index increased from a revised -12.7 to -6.2. Economists had forecast an increase to -11.9.

According to the GFK survey,

• The easing of hard lockdown measures, which started in early March, as well as a downward trend in infection rates supported consumer confidence.
• In terms of timing, the survey was conducted between 4^th and 15^th March, before Germany’s announcement of fresh lockdown measures.
• A sharp increase in new COVID-19 cases and issues surrounding the AstraZeneca vaccine had a muted impact on sentiment.

Looking at the individual components of the survey,

• Income expectations hit a 12-month high, with the indicator jumping by 15.8 points to 22.3 points.
• Propensity to buy followed rising income expectations, with the indicator increasing by 4.9 points to 12.3 points. This remains 19 points below the previous year’s level.
• The economic expectations indicator rose by 9.7 points to 17.7, its highest level since September 2020.

Market Impact

Ahead of the key stats of the day, the EUR had fallen to a pre-release current day low $1.18042 before striking a pre-stat high and a current day high $1.18278.

In response to the consumer confidence figures, the EUR rose from $1.18163 to a post-stat high $1.18178 before sliding to a post-stat low $1.18092.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.18161.

Much will now depend on whether the German government reintroduces lockdown measures after its U-turn on Wednesday.

Up Next

The ECB Economic Bulletin and ECB President Lagarde. From the U.S, 4^th quarter GDP and initial jobless claim figures will also be in focus.