Nonfarm Payrolls and Wage Growth Keep the Greenback in Focus

The Greenback is back in focus, with nonfarm payrolls and wage growth due out this afternoon. Another weak set of numbers will fully test risk sentiment.
Bob Mason
Non-farm employment change, payrolls or NFP.
Non-farm employment change, payrolls or NFP.

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

Australia retail sales figures and the RBA’s Financial Stability Report provided the Aussie Dollar with direction early in the day.

For the Aussie Dollar

Retail sales rose by 0.4% in August, month-on-month, following on from a 0.1% decline in July. Economists had forecast a 0.5% rise.

According to the ABS,

  • Food retailing sales increased by 0.4% to lead the way. Sales in clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose by 1.8.%, department stores by 1.1% and household goods retailing by 0.3%.
  • Other retailing also increased by 0.3%.
  • Partially offsetting the uptick was a 0.3% fall in cafes, restaurants and takeaway services.

The RBA’s Financial Stability Report had little influence following Tuesday’s rate cut. There were few surprises, with concerns over housing and the global economic outlook a main area of focus. The RBA noted that the housing market was a key source of potential systemic risk, the warning coming in spite of improved market conditions.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67532 to $0.67527 upon release of the figures and financial stability report. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6765.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.0.30% to $0.6322, with the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% to ¥106.83 against the U.S Dollar.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.

Following a heavy data set in the week, the markets will have an opportunity to reflect on what the numbers mean from a monetary policy perspective.

Economic data out of the U.S later in the day will influence sentiment across the broader markets, however, with nonfarm payrolls due out.

Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to impact as the Brexit clock ticks away and the markets look ahead to next week’s trade talks.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.0972.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats leaves the Pound firmly in the hand of Brexit chatter and news from the UK Parliament.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.08% to $1.2342.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include nonfarm payrolls, wage growth figures and September’s unemployment rate.

We can expect the headline nonfarm and wage growth to have the greatest impact on the day. August trade data is also due out, though it will likely have a muted impact on the Greenback.

On the political front, impeachment talk and any updates on trade will also impact. With less than a week to go before trade talks are set to resume, any negative chatter would weigh on the Greenback.

The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 98.869 at the time of writing.

For the Loonie

It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. August trade data and September’s Ivey PMI are due out later today.

We can expect the Loonie to respond to the numbers, which will need to hold steady to support the BoC’s current stance on monetary policy.

The Loonie was up by 0.04% at C$1.3332, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

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