The German Economy Was Back in Focus and Delivered the EUR Mixed Signals

Following positive trade and service sector data from China ahead of the European open, the German economy was back in focus this morning.

Industrial production and trade data for March were the key stats from the Eurozone ahead of the European open.

German Industrial Production

Industrial production increased by 2.5% in March, reversing a revised 1.9% decline from February. Economists had forecast a 2.3% rise.

According to Destatis,

• Production in industry excl. energy and construction increased by 0.7%.
• Within industry, the production of intermediate goods was up by 1.2%.
• More significantly, the production of consumer goods jumped by 2.9%, while the production of capital goods slipped by 0.4%.
• Outside industry, energy production was up by 2.4%, with the production in construction surging by 10.8%.
• Compared with March 2020, industrial production was up 5.1%.

German Trade

In March, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed from €18.9bn to €14.3bn. Economists had forecast a widening to €19.5bn.

According to Destatis,

• In March 2021, exports were up 1.2, with  imports up 6.5% compared with February 2021.
• German exports increased by 16.1% compared with March 2020, with imports up by 15.5%.

Trade with EU countries:

• Germany exported goods to the value of €67.5bn to EU member states (+21.2%), with imports from EU member states of €57.7bn (+18.4%).
• Exports to euro area countries increased by 22.6%, with imports up by 16.2%.

Trade with non-EU countries:

• Compared with March 2020, exports to third countries increased by 10.8%, with imports rising by 12.2%.

Trade with the UK:

• Exports to the UK fell by 13.2% when compared with March 2020, while imports rose by 1.6%.

Others:

• German exports to China jumped by 37.9% when compared with March 2020.
• Exports to the U.S rose by 8.8%.

Market Impact

Ahead of the numbers the EUR had risen to a pre-stat high $1.20699.

In response to the numbers, the EUR slipped to a post-stat and current day low $1.2053 before rising to a post-stat and current day high $1.20893.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.06% to $1.20725.

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