It's the eve of election day, with some jitters creeping in ahead of the big day. It's not a big Tory Party lead, but it is a lead...
It’s the eve of the UK General Election and could be the beginning of the end of Britain’s membership in the EU.
After 3-years of Brexit chatter, negotiations, renegotiations and what has led to a 3rd General Election in 4-years, the markets will be hoping to change the record…
Since Boris Johnson called a General Election, we’ve seen the Pound enjoy an upward trend, in spite of economic woes.
So, on the eve of the election, what do the latest polls, predictions and odds say…
YouGov released its final 2019 General Election MRP on Tuesday.
According to the latest MRP,
That’s back to a single-digit margin, which is far from a comprehensive lead for Johnson and the Brexiteers.
The latest bookmakers’ odds saw some minor changes from the weekend.
According to Oddschecker,
For the Tories
For the opposition party
Hung Parliament?
With the Lib Dems continuing to struggle, the odds of a hung parliament moved 11/4 to 13/5, after having moved from 5/2 to 11/4 going into the weekend. This came off the back of a widening from 2/1 to 5/2 mid-way through last week.
Over the weekend of 23rd November, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament stand at 11/5.
UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.
The opinion polls and the bookmakers continue to have the Tories as the likely victors in next Thursday’s election.
Electoral Calculus has also continued to predict a Tory Party majority this time around. The predictions, however, have failed to ease uncertainty.
According to the latest predictions, based on opinion polls from between 4th and 9th of December,
For the Tories
For the Opposition Party
The Remaining Parties
After hitting 8-month highs, we’ve seen the Pound come under pressure this morning.
Increased sensitivity was to be expected as final pre-election opinion polls roll out.
While YouGov, the bookies, and Electoral Calculus have the Tories in 10 Downing Street, opinion polls narrowed slightly this week.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.16% to $1.31341. In spite of the latest polls, the Pound avoided sub-$1.31 levels, with the markets continuing to bet on a Tory majority.
Tactical voting and more could undo the Pound, however, which has a long way to slide should the Tories falter…
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.