The UK General Election – Latest Polls Show the Tory Lead Widen

The opinion polls and the predictions delivered a boost for the Tories and the Pound at the start of the week. We could see a return to $1.30 levels…
Bob Mason

It’s a positive start to the week for the Tories. The latest YouGov polls from 14-15th November delivered more good news for Boris and the Brexiteers.

The Tories and Labour are certainly delivering voters with food for thought.

On the one side, the Tories are looking to ease the pain of Brexit by delivering tax cuts and more. On the other, Labour is looking to nationalize.

While there is not much time for the respective parties to get across their policies, voters continue to favor certainty surrounding an orderly departure from the EU.

The UK Election Opinion Polls and Odds

Over the weekend YouGov updated its voting intention tracker to include opinion polls from 14th and 15th November.

According to the latest YouGov report, released on Sunday, the Tories saw their share of the vote rise from 42% on 12th November to 45% on 15th November.

For Corbyn and the reds, the only good news from the latest poll was that they didn’t lose voters to the Blues.

The Labour Party saw voting intentions hold steady at 28% after having risen from 26% in the 8th November polls.

It’s been bad news for the Lib Dems, however, with their share of the vote falling from 17% back on 8th November to 15%.

As a result of the uptick in the Tory lead, Electoral Calculus released updated prediction figures in response to the opinion polls from 12th to 16th November.

According to the latest figures, the Tories were predicted to win 360 seats, which would give a 70 seat majority.

Last week, Electoral Calculus had predicted the Tories to win 350 seats, with a majority of 50 seats. The projections were based on opinion polls taken between 6th and 12th November.

While the opinion polls showed support for Labour Party hold steady, Electoral Calculus sent a different message. The Labour saw their number of predicted seats fall from 213 to 202 seats.

In spite of the rise in Tory Party support, however, the Tories have yet to reach the post-Brexit Party driven rise to 382 seats. The 382 seat prediction had given the Tories a 112 seat majority.

Hung Parliament

Unsurprisingly the odds of a Tory Party victory shortened as the opinion poll margins widened.

According to Oddschecker, the odds for the Tories to win with an overall majority stood at 6/11 shifting from 4/7 last Friday

The odds of the Tories winning the most seats stood at 1/16, which was unchanged from last Friday.

For the opposition party, the odds of winning the most seats also held steady at 12/1. The odds of an overall Labour majority shortened from 35/1 to 33/1, however.

With the Lib Dems struggling to see an uptick in support, the latest opinion polls and Electoral Calculus figures suggested that the chances of a hung parliament fell at the start of the week.

At the time of writing, Oddschecker had the odds of a hung parliament sitting at 9/4, widening from 7/4.

UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.

The Pound

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.52% to $1.29651.

Support came off the back of the latest opinion polls and latest predictions.

Bookmaker odds showed the likelihood of a hung parliament fall as well, which was also Pound positive.

The good news, for now, is that Brexit uncertainty may be a thing of the past come 12th December.

That is assuming, of course, that the predictions and the polls at least can be relied upon…

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