The UK Leadership Race Update: Into the Final Week We Go

The Tory Party leadership race goes into its last week. Boris Johnson remains favorite going into tomorrow’s ballot. Does that mean no-deal?
Bob Mason
Parliament

The Second Ballot

We’re into the final week and the 6 remaining candidates have tomorrow’s 2nd ballot to look forward to.

Following the 1st ballot and the end of the leadership race for Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper, and Esther McVey, Matt Hancock also withdrew from the race.

Boris Johnson remains the leadership race favorite, with Jeremy Hunt considered the alternative.

As part of the leadership race, a televised TV debate that was held over the weekend showed just how divided the Conservative Party continues to be on Brexit.

Boris Johnson decided to skip the debate, making the headlines going into the weekend.

During the debate, a number of hot topics were discussed including Brexit. From the debate, it was evident that Rory Stewart was least in favor of a no deal departure from the EU.

With no clear winners, Boris Johnson will likely go into tomorrow’s ballot and 2nd debate well ahead of his peers.

Who’s Left in the Running

Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart. and Jeremy Hunt goes into tomorrow’s ballot.

Boris Johnson remains the man to beat. This is assuming his absence from the weekend debate did little damage. Unlikely…

On Brexit, Boris Johnson continues to favor a deal / no-deal departure from the EU on 31st October.

If the EU decides that there is no further room to maneuver and the UK Parliament fails to compromise, it would ultimately lead to a no-deal Brexit.

What Lies Ahead

The 2nd ballot will take place tomorrow. Candidates will need at least 33 Conservative Party MP votes to go into the 19th and 20th June ballots that will leave 2 front runners to go head-to-head for the top spot.

The remaining candidates from the 2nd ballot will then take part in a televised debate on Tuesday evening.

Conservative Party members will then vote for the Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister on Saturday, 22nd June.

It’s worth noting that, while Conservative members of Parliament vote in the ballots, it will be members of the Conservative Party who will take part in the Saturday vote.

It’s going to be a particularly interesting week. Tomorrow’s ballot will see the 50 votes for last week’s losers and Matt Hancock be shared amongst the remaining 6. Where Matt Hancock et al supporters go will give some indication of just how strong Johnson’s chances are…

According to the latest odds, the bookies have Boris Johnson favorite with odds of 1/5 odds.

Jeremy Hunt sits a distant second with odds of 8/1 and Rory Stewart in third with odds of 16/1.

Michael Gove (20/1), Sajid Javid (50/1) and Dominic Raab (50/1) are the outsiders going into tomorrow’s ballot.

Assuming no shock results, the markets and the Tories will soon discover whether Boris Johnson can deliver unity. The 1st ballot result suggested so…

For the Pound,

We can expect the markets to be holding their breath going into tomorrow’s ballot. The EU continues to talk of no further negotiations. A Boris Johnson victory raises the chances of a no Brexit exit… That’s not been a good thing for the Pound and will likely remain so.

A Tory Party leader, who can bring the Tory Party together is positive. For the Pound, however, it does ultimately boil down to Brexit.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by just 0.03% to $1.25844.

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