The Week Ahead – A Busy Economic Calendar and Geopolitics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 65 stats due out through the week ending 01-April. In the week prior, 43 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, consumer confidence, ADP nonfarm employment, and Q4 GDP numbers will be in focus.

Expect consumer confidence and ADP numbers to be the key.

On Thursday, attention will shift to personal spending, inflation, and jobless claims figures.

The key stat of the week will be the nonfarm payroll numbers due out on Friday.

FOMC member chatter will also need monitoring in the week.

In the week ending 25^th March, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.57% to 98.789.

For the EUR:

The German economy will be in focus early in the week, with consumer confidence figures due out.

On Thursday, the German economy remains in the spotlight. Retail sales and unemployment figures are due out.

At the end of the week, manufacturing sector PMIs for member states and the Eurozone will also draw more interest.

Prelim March inflation figures for member states and the Eurozone will be the key stats in the week. The markets expect another surge in consumer prices to test support for riskier assets.

For the week, the EUR fell by 0.62% to $1.0983.

For the Pound:

Q4 quarter GDP numbers will draw interest on Thursday, ahead of finalized manufacturing PMI figures on Friday.

With little to consider, expect both sets of numbers to influence.

BoE Governor Bailey speaks on Monday, with MPC Member Broadbent delivering a speech on Wednesday. Any chatter on monetary policy or the economic outlook will influence.

The Pound rose by 0.03% to end the week at $1.3182.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead. Economic data is limited to GDP numbers on Thursday. While the numbers will provide direction, market risk sentiment and crude oil prices will remain the key driver.

The Loonie ended the week up 1.00% to C$1.2477 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

Retail sales and private sector credit figures will be the main stats of the week. Expect retail sales to have the greatest impact, with consumption key for economic growth.

The Aussie Dollar jumped by 1.35% to $0.7515.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Building consents and business confidence figures are the key stats of the week. Expect business confidence to have the most influence on the Kiwi Dollar.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 0.93% to $0.6972.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a busier week ahead, with retail sales, industrial production, and Tankan survey data to draw interest.

While the numbers will draw attention, we don’t expect Japanese Yen sensitivity. Monetary policy divergence and market risk sentiment will remain the key drivers.

The Japanese Yen tumbled by 2.42% to end the week at ¥122.05 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

Private sector PMIs for March will be in focus. While the NBS figures will draw interest, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, due out on Friday, will impact market risk sentiment.

In the week ending 25^th March, the Yuan fell by 0.08% to end the week at 6.3662 against the Dollar.

Geo-Politics

Russia and Ukraine will remain the area of focus in the week ahead, with the markets looking for news of a ceasefire.