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Bob Mason
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Currency

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with just 38 stats in focus in the week ending 9th April. In the week prior, 60 stats had been in focus.

For the major markets, it is also shortened week, however, with Commonwealth and some European markets closed on Monday.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, private sector PMI numbers for March and February factory orders will be key.

Expect the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to be the key driver on Monday.

The focus will then shift to jobless claims figures on Thursday. Following impressive NFP numbers last week, the markets may be forgiving of any further increase… Avoiding a return to 800k levels will be key, however.

Wrapping things up at the end of the week will be wholesale inflation figures for March. Sensitivity towards inflation remains. A pickup in wholesale inflation would draw interest at the end of the week.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday. There shouldn’t be too many surprises. A FED Chair Powell speech on Thursday, will garner plenty of interest, however.

In the week ending 26th March, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.28% to 93.022.

For the EUR:

It’s another busy week ahead on the economic data front.

February unemployment figures for the Eurozone will be in focus. With a number of member states reintroducing lockdown measures, any positive numbers will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.

On Wednesday, March service sector PMI numbers for Italy and Spain are due out. Finalized PMIs are also due out for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

While we would expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to draw the greatest interest, any marked revisions from France and Germany will also influence.

In the 2nd half of the week, the German economy is in the spotlight.

February factory orders, industrial production, and trade figures are due out on Thursday and Friday.

Following impressive PMI numbers from Germany, the markets will be looking for positive data.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB meeting minutes on Thursday will also draw interest.

The EUR ended the week down by 0.30% to $1.1759.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Finalized composite and services PMI figures for March are due out on Wednesday. Expect any revision to the services PMI to influence.

In the 2nd half of the week, construction PMI and house price figures for March are due out.

We don’t expect too much influence from these stats, however.

The Pound ended the week up by 0.31% to $1.3832.

For the Loonie:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

Mid-week, February trade and March Ivey PMI numbers are due out. Expect the numbers to influence ahead of March employment figures on Friday.

Employment change numbers at the end of the week will likely have the greatest influence on the Loonie.

From elsewhere, crude oil inventories and market risk sentiment will remain key drivers, however.

The Loonie ended the week down 0.01% to C$1.2578 against the U.S Dollar.

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Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week.

There are no material stats to provide the Aussie Dollar with direction.

While there are no stats, the RBA is in action on Tuesday, however.

Following some bullish chatter from the FED and the BoE, the markets will be looking to get a sense of what lies ahead. There are no expectations of a policy move, however.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.35% to $0.7610.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead.

There are no material stats due out of New Zealand to provide the Kiwi Dollar with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Kiwi in the hands of market risk sentiment in the week.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.46% to $0.7032.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a quiet week ahead.

At the start of the week, finalized March service PMI figures are due out.

The services sector continues to struggle, so barring a marked upward revision, we don’t expect the numbers to influence.

On Tuesday, household spending figures for February will draw interest. Another slide in spending will raise more concern over the economic outlook.

The Japanese Yen fell by 0.96% to ¥110.69 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead.

Caixin service sector PMI figures for March will be in focus on Tuesday. With the Chinese economy gathering momentum, the markets will be looking for a pickup in service sector activity.

At the end of the week, inflation figures for March are due out. An easing in inflationary pressures could test support for riskier assets.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.40% to CNY6.570 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics and COVID-19

U.S foreign policy and government spending plans remain key areas of focus for the markets.

For the Eurozone, vaccination roll-outs and COVID-19 news updates will also be in focus in the week ahead.

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