The Week Ahead – Central Bank Chatter, Economic Data, and Geopolitics in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, with 30 stats in focus in the week ending 11^th February. In the week prior, 76 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

Early in the week, stats are limited to December trade data that will have a muted impact on the markets.

On Thursday, January inflation and weekly jobless claims figures will be key, however.

At the end of the week, we can also expect some sensitivity to consumer sentiment numbers for February.

In the week ending 4^th February, the Dollar Spot Index slid by 1.84% to 95.485.

For the EUR:

The German economy will be in focus in a quiet week on the economic data front.

Key stats include industrial production and trade data due out on Monday and Wednesday. With little else for the markets to consider, expect the numbers to influence.

From the ECB, Economic Forecasts due out on Thursday will have a material impact on the EUR.

For the week, the EUR jumped by 2.67% to $1.1449.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar. Industrial production, trade data, and GDP numbers are due out on Friday. Expect the GDP and production figures to be key.

Other stats include housing sector numbers that should have a muted impact on the Pound.

On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey could also move dial in a speech scheduled late Thursday.

The Pound rose by 0.97% to end the week at $1.3531.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead, with December trade data due out on Tuesday. With little else for the markets to consider, expect market risk sentiment and crude oil prices to also influence.

On the monetary policy front, BoC Governor Macklem could influence on Wednesday following disappointing stats last week.

The Loonie ended the week up 0.10% to C$1.2757 against the U.S Dollar.

From the Asia Pacific

For the Aussie Dollar:

Business and consumer sentiment will be in focus on Tuesday and Wednesday. Both sets of numbers will need to reflect improved sentiment to support the Aussie Dollar. Business investment and consumer spending remain key to the economic outlook.

The Aussie Dollar rose by 1.20% to $0.7072.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

Mid-week, inflation expectations will be in focus ahead of key stats on Friday.

Business PMI and electronic card retail sales figures are due out on Friday. While the Business PMI will influence, electronic card retail sales will likely have the greater impact on the day.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.30% to $0.6633.

For the Japanese Yen:

It’s a quiet week ahead, with household spending figures due out. While the numbers will draw plenty of interest, there’s unlikely to be an impact on the Japanese Yen in the week.

The Japanese Yen held steady at ¥115.260 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

In a quiet week ahead, Caixin Service and composite PMI figures for January will be in focus on Monday. Following disappointing NBS numbers, a marked fall in the services PMI would test support for riskier assets.

Geo-Politics

Chatter from Russia and the U.S will need tracking along with any news from China and the Middle East.