The Week Ahead – Central Bank Chatter, Evergrande, and a Busy Economic Calendar in Focus
On the Macro
It’s a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 59 stats in focus in the week ending 1st October. In the week prior, 39 stats had also been in focus.
For the Dollar:
Core durable goods orders for August kicks things off on Monday.
The focus will then shift to consumer confidence figures on Tuesday. We have seen market sensitivity to consumer confidence heightened in recent months.
On Thursday, the focus will then shift to final GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter and weekly jobless claims. Barring a marked revision to the GDP numbers, expect the jobless claims to be key.
At the end of the week, inflation, personal spending, and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures will also influence.
On the monetary policy front, we will expect increased sensitivity to FOMC member chatter in the week. FED Chair Powell and a number of FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the week.
In the week ending 24th September, the Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.14% to 93.327.
For the EUR:
It’s a relatively busy week on the economic data front.
German consumer sentiment and unemployment figures will be in focus on Tuesday and Thursday.
Consumer spending from both France and Germany will also draw interest on Tuesday and Friday.
Manufacturing PMI figures for Italy and Spain, and finalized PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone wrap things up on Friday.
With inflation still a key area of interest, prelim member state and Eurozone inflation figures will also influence in the week.
On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is also scheduled to speak in the week. Expect any chatter on the economic outlook or monetary policy to move the dial.
For the week, the EUR fell by 0.04% to $1.1720.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
Key stats include 2nd quarter GDP and finalized manufacturing PMIs due out on Thursday and Friday.
Expect any revision to prelim figures to influence.
On the monetary policy front, BoE Governor Bailey is due to speak on Wednesday. Following the BoE’s hawkish guidance last week, there will be plenty of interest in the Governor’s speech.
The Pound ended the week down by 0.45% to $1.3679.
For the Loonie:
It’s yet another quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.
RMPI figures will be in focus on Thursday ahead of GDP numbers on Friday.
Expect the GDP numbers to have a greater impact in the week. Much will depend on market risk sentiment, however.
The Loonie ended the week up 0.88% to C$1.2652 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week.
Retail sales figures due out on Tuesday will be the key stat of the week. On Thursday, private sector credit figures will also influence, however.
Away from the economic calendar, updates on government plans vis-à-vis lockdown measures will also be key, however.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.23% to $0.7262.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
It’s another quiet week ahead.
Economic data is limited to business confidence figures due out on Thursday.
With the markets looking at the impact of the latest lockdown measures, expect interest in the numbers.
Key, however, will be updates from the New Zealand government on any plans to reopen.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.36% to $0.7015.
For the Japanese Yen:
Industrial production and retail sales figures will draw interest on Thursday.
Of greater significance, however, will be 3rd quarter Tankan survey numbers due out on Friday.
The Japanese Yen fell by 0.73% to ¥110.97 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
Private sector activity is back in focus.
NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs along with the all-important Caixin Manufacturing PMI will test market risk sentiment on Thursday.
Another set of weak numbers will likely weigh heavily on riskier assets.
The Chinese Yuan ended the week flat at CNY6.4662 against the U.S Dollar.
Iran, China, and Russia remain the main areas of interest for the markets. News updates from the China, in particular, will need monitoring following last week’s holiday.