The Week Ahead – Economic Data, COVID-19, and Capitol Hill in Focus

On the Macro

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic calendar, with 42 stats in focus in the week ending 15^th January. In the week prior, 61 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a quieter week ahead on the economic data front.

In the 1^st half of the week, JOLTs job openings and inflation figures are due out.

The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar and market risk sentiment, however.

Expectations are for labor market conditions and consumption to improve as the U.S government administers vaccinations.

In the 2^nd half of the week, it gets a little busier.

The weekly jobless claims figures will draw attention on Thursday.

At the end of the week, consumer sentiment and industrial production will also provide direction.

On the monetary policy front, FED Chair Powell could move the dial on Thursday.

Away from the economic calendar, expect chatter from Capitol Hill and COVID-19 news to also influence.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.18% to 90.098.

For the EUR:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

Industrial production and trade data for the Eurozone are due out on Wednesday and Friday.

We would expect the industrial production figures to garner the greatest interest.

Finalized December inflation figures for Spain and France are also due out. These are likely to have a muted impact on the EUR, however.

On the monetary policy front ECB President Lagarde has 2 scheduled speeches in the 1^st half of the week. Expect any forward guidance to influence. On Thursday, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes are also due out but should have a muted impact.

The EUR ended the week up by 0.02% to $1.2218.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include November industrial and manufacturing production, and GDP figures for November.

December retail sales and November trade figures are also due out but would likely have a muted impact on the Pound.

Away from the economic calendar, expect COVID-19 news to also influence. With the UK in lockdown, strong progress towards the vaccination of priority groups should ease pressure on the Pound.

The Pound ended the week down by 0.76% to $1.3568.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead.

There are no material stats to provide direction in the week.

The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil inventory numbers and COVID-19 news updates.

OPEC’s monthly report will also provide direction.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.20% to C$1.2702 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week on the economic data front.

November retail sales figures are due out on Monday along with consumer sentiment numbers on Tuesday

With no other stats to consider, expect plenty of interest in the numbers. For the RBA, consumer consumption remains key to any economic recovery.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news will remain a key driver in the week.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.82% to $0.7757.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Key stats include building consent figures and electronic card retail sales figures.

Expect electronic card retail sales figures to have the greatest impact in the week.

Away from the calendar, COVID-19 will continue to provide direction. Any supply hiccups issues would test support for the Kiwi Dollar.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 0.75% to $0.7242.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a particularly quiet week ahead.

Economic data is limited to November current account figures that are likely to have a muted impact on the Yen.

The focus will remain on COVID-19 updates and sentiment towards the economic outlook. A spike in new COVID-19 cases in Japan will be of concern, with the economy continuing to struggle.

The Japanese Yen ended the week down by 0.72% to ¥103.94 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a relatively busy week ahead.

December inflation and trade figures are due out on Monday and Thursday.

While inflation figures will influence, expect trade data to have the greatest impact.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.81% to CNY6.4746 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S Politics

U.S politics will likely remain the key drive in the week ahead.

Following the scenes on Capitol Hill, the Democrats are looking to oust Trump from office.

Trump is unlikely to go quietly, however. His actions have split the Republican Party. He has also united the Democrats, who now have control of both Houses.

With Inauguration Day approaching, the markets will be looking for Biden’s early goals.

News of plans to deliver further stimulus details this week should support riskier assets further.