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Bob Mason
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On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 52 stats in focus in the week ending 27th November. In the week prior, 62 stats had also been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a busy but shortened week ahead on the economic data front.

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In the 1st half of the week, prelim November private sector PMIs and consumer confidence figures are in focus.

Expect the Services PMI and CB Consumer Confidence figures to be the key drivers.

The focus will then shift to a particularly busy Wednesday.

Key stats include the weekly jobless claims, core durable goods orders, and personal spending figures.

2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter are also due out. Barring a marked deviation from 1st estimate, however, the numbers should have a muted impact on risk sentiment.

Other stats due out in the week include house price, trade, inflation, new home sales, and finalized consumer sentiment figures.

We don’t expect these to have a material impact on the Dollar, however.

On the monetary policy front, the FOMC minutes due out late in the week will also draw attention. Any contingency plans, in event of lawmakers failing to deliver an additional stimulus, would draw interest.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 and U.S politics will continue to remain the key drivers, however.

The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.39% to 92.392.

For the EUR:

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic data front.

Prelim November private sector PMI figures for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out on Monday.

Expect plenty of influence from the numbers, with COVID-19 containment measures likely to hit service sector activity.

On Tuesday, the focus will shift to finalized GDP and November Ifo business sentiment figures from Germany.

With lockdown measures in place, the GDP numbers are unlikely to have too much influence.

On Thursday, German consumer sentiment figures are due out that will also draw plenty of attention.

At the end of the week, French consumer spending, inflation, and finalized GDP numbers are due out.

Expect inflation and consumer spending figures to have the greatest impact.

Eurozone consumer confidence and French jobseeker totals due out in the week should have a muted impact on the EUR.

On the monetary policy front, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes are due out on Thursday. The markets will be looking for an indication of what policy easing measures are likely next month.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news updates will remain a key driver in the week.

The EUR/USD ended the week up by 0.19% to $1.1857.

For the Pound:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

Prelim November private sector PMIs are due out at the start of the week. With lockdown measures in place, expect plenty of influence from the PMIs.

The Services PMI would likely have the greatest impact on the Pound.

Away from the economic calendar, the markets will be looking for some updates on Brexit.

The GBP/USD ended the week up by 0.65% to $1.3275.

For the Loonie:

It’s a particularly quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

There are no material stats due out of Canada to influence the Loonie in the week.

A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of COVID-19 news updates and crude oil prices.

The Loonie ended the week up by 0.32% to C$1.3095 against the U.S Dollar.

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Out of Asia

For the Aussie Dollar:

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

3rd quarter construction work done and private capital expenditure figures are due out on Wednesday and Thursday.

The CAPEX numbers will likely have a greater influence in the week.

Away from the economic calendar, COVID-19 news and U.S politics will continue to influence.

The Aussie Dollar ended the week up by 0.44% to $0.7302.

For the Kiwi Dollar:

It’s a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

3rd quarter retail sales figures are due out on Monday. With the RBNZ ready to drop rates into negative territory, expect sensitivity to the numbers.

The focus will then shift to October trade data, due out on Thursday.

From the RBNZ, the RBNZ Financial Stability Report and a Governor Orr speech on Wednesday will draw plenty of attention.

The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up by 1.23% to $0.6929.

For the Japanese Yen:

It is a quieter week on the economic calendar, with Japanese markets closed on Monday.

November inflation figures are due out on Friday ahead of October retail sales figures on Saturday.

We don’t expect the stats to influence, with COVID-19 remaining the key driver near-term.

The Japanese Yen ended the week up by 0.74% to ¥103.86 against the U.S Dollar.

Out of China

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic data front.

There are no material stats to provide direction in the week. A lack of stats will leave foreign policy and sentiment towards Hong Kong in focus.

The Chinese Yuan ended the week up by 0.66% to CNY6.5630 against the U.S Dollar.

Geo-Politics

U.S Politics

The focus in the week will be on Capitol Hill, as the markets look for progress towards a COVID-19 stimulus package.

With the COVID-19 2nd wave hitting the U.S, failure to make progress will test support for riskier assets.

From the Oval Office, will this be the week when President Trump concedes? To date, Trump has failed to make any headway in reversing the outcome of the Presidential Election.

Brexit

For the Pound and the UK economy, Brexit will remain a key driver. After talks were suspended last week, will there be some form of an extension to the transition period?

News from the weekend was positive, suggesting progress towards a deal, despite differences remaining.

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