The Week Ahead – Stats and Earnings to Drive the MajorsIn a shortened week ahead, economic data and earnings will be the key drivers. Stats will need to really impress to shift sentiment towards FED policy.
On the Macro
For the Dollar:
It’s a busy week ahead. Through the first half of the week, key stats due out of the U.S include NY Empire State manufacturing, industrial production and trade data.
In the latter part of the week, key stats include retail sales and private sector PMI numbers, due out on Thursday.
Building permits and housing starts due out on Friday will have less of an impact, with Thursday’s stats likely to have the greatest influence.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down 0.43% to $96.972.
For the EUR:
Economic data includes economic sentiment figures out of Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, which are released ahead of the Eurozone’s finalized inflation figures and trade data due out on Wednesday.
In a shortened week, Thursday’s prelim April private-sector PMI numbers will be the key driver. The focus will be on Germany’s manufacturing and the Eurozone composite.
The EUR/USD ended the week up 0.74% to $1.1299.
For the Pound:
It’s a busier week than normal. Employment figures on Tuesday, inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales figures on Thursday will have a material impact on the Pound.
With Brexit now extended through to 31st March, the BoE’s hands are likely tied for a little while longer. That should leave the Pound somewhat less sensitive to the inflation numbers this week.
The GBP/USD ended the week up 0.28% at $1.3074.
For the Loonie:
Key stats include trade and inflation figures due out on Wednesday and retail sales figures due out on Thursday.
Ahead of the stats, the BoC will also release its Business Outlook Survey on Monday. Of less influence will be foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales figures due out on Tuesday.
Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment and impact on crude oil prices will continue to be a factor.
The Loonie ended the week up 0.46% to C$1.3323 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of Asia
For the Aussie Dollar:
It’s a relatively quiet week ahead. Key stats are limited to March employment figures and business confidence figures due out on Thursday.
Outside of the numbers, the RBA will release its monetary policy meeting minutes, which will need to be considered. Expectations are for the RBA to cut rates later in the year, the markets will be looking for clues…
Stats out of China will also need to be factored in, with GDP and industrial production figures due out on Wednesday.
The Aussie Dollar ended the week up 0.96% to $0.7173.
For the Japanese Yen:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead. March trade figures and February industrial production figures are due out on Wednesday. On Thursday, prelim manufacturing PMI numbers are due out ahead of inflation figures on Friday. We can expect the trade figures to be of greatest influence mid-week.
The Japanese Yen ended the week down 0.26% to ¥112.02 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Kiwi Dollar:
Another quiet week ahead leaves 1st quarter inflation figures due out on Wednesday to provide direction.
While market risk sentiment will influence throughout the week, softer inflation figures could lift expectations of a near-term rate cut.
The Kiwi Dollar ended the week up 0.49% to $0.6763.
Out of China:
Key stats due out include fixed asset investment, 1st quarter GDP, industrial production and retail sales figures. All the stats are due out on Wednesday and will have a material impact on market risk appetite, particularly the GDP numbers.
U.S – China Trade War: Progress will likely see Trump’s attention divert to Japan and the EU. GDP numbers out of China on Wednesday could reignite concerns over a possible collapse in talks, however. Tariffs remain in place in spite of the progress, which will remain a drag.
Brexit: The EU’s Brexit extension to 31st October now leaves Britain in limbo for another 6-months. Can Theresa May survive the backlash and get enough support for a way out of the EU or will it be General Elections and a possible 2nd EU Referendum? Parliament is in recess until 23rd April that will keep her safe for now. In spite of the Easter break, cross-party talks are expected to continue in the week.
On the monetary policy front,
For the AUD, the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes are due out on Tuesday. The rate statement gave very little indication of a possible rate cut later in the year. The minutes could deliver the much-needed detail…
U.S Corporate Earnings:
The focus early on remains in the financial sector. Key earnings releases through the week include those for Citigroup (Monday); Goldman Sachs (Monday); Bank of America (Tuesday); Netflix Inc. (Tuesday); Morgan Stanley (Wednesday); and American Express (Thursday).