Trump Rocks the Markets as the Focus Shifts to Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm payrolls and wage growth will need to be impressive to offset negative sentiment stemming from Trump’s latest tariff threat…
Bob Mason
NFP

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively quiet Asian session on the data front this morning.

Economic data through the session was limited to Australia June retail sales figures and 2nd quarter wholesale inflation numbers.

Outside of the numbers, corporate earnings and geopolitical risk continued to provide direction in the wake of the Wednesday FED rate cut and forward guidance.

For the Aussie Dollar

According to figures released by the ABS, the annual rate of wholesale inflation came in at 2%, rising from 1.9% in the 1st quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, the Producer Price Index rose increased by 0.4%, following a 0.4% rise in the 1st quarter.

Retail sales were the key driver on the day, however. According to ABS, retail sales rose by 0.4% in June, which better than a forecasted 0.3% rise. Retail sales had increased by 0.1% in May.

  • Sales increased in 5 of the 6 industries in June, with a 2% rise in sales of clothing, footwear and personal accessories leading the way.
  • Bucking the trend in June were department store sales, which fell by 0.6%.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68012 to $0.68067 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6812.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.22% to ¥107.11 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.23% to $0.6542.

While the Aussie Dollar found support from this morning stats, risk aversion provided support for the Japanese Yen. A lack of stats out of New Zealand left the Kiwi Dollar under pressure after the latest threat of more tariffs on Chinese goods.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead. Key stats due out of the Eurozone are limited to the Eurozone’s June retail sales figures.

While the stats are on the lighter side, a greater reliance on consumption will leave the EUR more sensitive to retail sales figures.

On the geopolitical front, the latest threat of tariffs on Chinese goods will also need to be considered.

At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1079.

For the Pound

It’s a relatively quiet day ahead, with July construction PMI numbers to provide the Pound with direction.

While we can expect the PMI to have some influence, direction through the day will come from a further reaction to Thursday’s BoE forward guidance and Brexit chatter.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.18% to $1.2106.

Across the Pond

It’s a big day for the Greenback, with key stats due out of the U.S including July nonfarm payroll, wage growth numbers and July’s unemployment rate.

June trade data and finalized consumer sentiment and factory order numbers are also due out, but will likely have a muted impact on the Dollar.

Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will need to be monitored through the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 98.402.

For the Loonie

June trade figures are due out of Canada later this afternoon. We can expect the Loonie to be particularly sensitive to today’s numbers.

Weak figures could raise the prospects of BoC action near-term, which would pin back the Loonie on the day.

The Loonie was down by 0.05% at C$1.3218, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. Sentiment towards the U.S – China trade war weighed early on.

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