U.S. Market Upside Threatened By The Rising Number Of Coronavirus CasesS&P 500 is trying to get above the resistance at 3150 as optimism about economic recovery is tested by the worsening situation on the coronavirus front.
U.S. Sets A New Coronavirus Record
The markets are closed today in observance of the Independence Day holiday but traders will still keep an eye on the developments on the coronavirus front.
The U.S. has recorded more than 55,000 coronavirus cases on Thursday, setting a new daily record for both the country and the world.
At this point, the stock market has mostly ignored the continued spread of the disease in the U.S as the economic data is pointing to a quick rebound.
The recent Non Farm Payrolls report showed that 4.8 million jobs were created in June. The Composite PMI report, which is expected to be released on Monday, is projected to show that Composite PMI has increased from 37 in May to 46.8 in June.
Numbers below 50 show contraction so the economy is not expected to be on an upward trajectory but the pace of decline is slowing down fast and a rebound is considered to be around the corner.
Most likely, the U.S. will continue to report scary coronavirus numbers during the next week. Thus, market’s optimism will be put to a serious test.
Gold Remains The Leader Among Safe Haven Assets
The rampant money-printing from the U.S. Federal Reserve has put some pressure on the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. Dollar Index is stuck between 97 and 97.5 after being as high as 103 in the acute phase of the crisis.
Meanwhile, traders’ attention has switched to gold which has recently managed to settle above the key resistance at $1750 and continues its upside move.
I’d note that many gold stocks are still well below the highs reached in May while gold has settled near yearly highs which creates a good setup for further upside in gold mining equities.
WTI Oil Is Still Struggling To Get Above The $40 Level
Another topic that is certainly worth following in the upcoming week is whether oil will be able to develop upside momentum above the $40 level.
Such a move will be bullish for the stock market because it will lift oil-related stocks and also because it will show that oil traders see signs of recovery.
Oil is a physical product so it is very sensitive to changes in supply/demand balance. The supply side is currently under control due to coordinated supply cuts, so tangible improvements on the demand side will immediately present themselves in the form of higher oil prices.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.