The Week Ahead – Central Banks Meetings, Non-Farm Payrolls and US Elections in Focus
As we are approaching the US elections vote on November 8, in the week ahead markets will be watching major economic events before turning attention towards Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton presidential battle.
Japan, Australia, United States and the United Kingdom will take the center stage as interest rate decisions and policy announcements are in focus.
On Friday, the last US non farm payrolls data will be released before the Federal Reserve December meeting to indicate the US economy strength. A strong reading will most likely push Fed members to increase interest rates by the end of the year.
Here are the main events for the upcoming week:
- Eurozone Core CPI for October will be released at 10:00 GMT and is expected to rise by 0.8%, the same as in the previous month. YoY growth is expected to rise by 0.5% compare to 0.4% in September.
- Eurozone GDP for Q3 will be released at 10:00 GMT. Growth is expected to rise by 0.3% QoQ and 1.6% YoY, unchanged from previous month.
- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Policy Announcement will be published at 03:00 GMT. Interest rate is expected to remain Unchanged. However, the BoJ will also publish a monetary policy statement to asses the central bank’s stimulus program. Central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference afterward to discuss the decision.
- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision will be published at 3:30 GMT and will attract markets attention. The RBA is expected to hold rates unchanged at 1.5% due to better than expected CPI data that was released last week.
- UK Manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:30 GMT. Data is expected to fall to 54.4 for October from 55.4 in September.
- US ISM Manufacturing will be released at 14:00 GMT and expected to rise slightly to 51.7 from 51.5 in the previous month.
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released at 12:30 GMT and will assist investors to predict Friday’s nonfarm payrolls result.
- FOMC Statement & Interest Rate Decision will take action at 18:00 GMT. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged as a rate hike before US presidential election is highly unlikely. The fed will release its statement as investors are watching for signals to a rate hike in December. according to Fed Watch tool, markets are currently pricing 68% for a rate hike in December.
- Bank of England Interest Rate Decision will be published at 11:00 GMT and rates are also expected to remain unchanged with a second rate cut is off the table for now. Markets analysts will be watching comments from BoE regarding the weakness of British pound since the vote to leave the European Union.
- ISM Non Manufacturing PMI will be released at 14:00 GMT and expected to fall to 56 from 57.1 in the previous month.
- US October Non Farm Payrolls will be released at 12:30 GMT. Figure is expected to increase by 173,000 jobs compare to 156,000 in September. Unemployment rate is expected to be improved slightly to 4.9% compare to 5.0% a month earlier. a strong reading will indicate an improving economy and support markets expectations for a rate hike in December.
Check out our real-time Economic Calendar