PrimeXBT: Bitcoin breaks out while equities stall; What the relative strength signal means for traders

Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst, PrimeXBT

The Middle East conflict has now been running for nearly a week with no clear resolution in sight, yet something interesting is happening in markets. The initial shock response, where everything sold off together, is giving way to a more differentiated picture. Bitcoin (BTC) is breaking out of a multi-week consolidation zone with bullish momentum. The Nasdaq index is going nowhere, trapped in a range. Gold is pulling back from recent highs. Oil is consolidating between two clearly defined levels.

When assets start moving independently of each other during an ongoing geopolitical event, that’s worth paying attention to.

Bitcoin: A significant breakout against the backdrop of conflict

Yesterday’s daily candle closed well above $70,000, a level that had capped price for several weeks and now appears to be flipping into support. Price traded as high as $74,000 intraday, the strongest level since early February. Crucially, this move is happening while equity markets are under continued pressure from the Iran war narrative.

Volume has been building since late February, with participation increasing before the breakout rather than just after it. That kind of volume structure tends to suggest accumulation rather than a reactive spike. One indicator still worth watching is the On Balance Volume (OBV), which had been in a persistent bearish structure since the market topped. There are early signs of it turning, but confirmation is still needed. If OBV begins to break its downward trend alongside price holding above $70,000, that adds significantly more conviction to the bullish case.

The immediate next target on the upside is the $80,000 to $85,000 zone, which represents the next major resistance confluence.

The weekly picture: Don’t lose sight of the bigger structure

While the daily momentum is encouraging, the weekly chart keeps this in perspective. Bitcoin is still technically in a downtrend, defined by a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the November 2025 peak above $120,000. That structural context matters.

The $85,000 area is particularly significant, sitting at approximately the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the latest impulse move to the downside, and coinciding with the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA). This confluence makes it the next major resistance level to watch. The weekly RSI is sitting at around 35, deeply in oversold territory, which historically has preceded significant bounces. Whether this becomes a full trend reversal or a relief rally that runs into that resistance zone is the key question for the coming weeks.

Nasdaq: Still trapped in the range

In contrast to Bitcoin’s directional break, the Nasdaq index is making no such statement. Price is currently oscillating between range low support around 24,200 and range EQ resistance around 25,200, with no decisive break in either direction. That is not the behaviour of a market that has made peace with the geopolitical backdrop.

This divergence is the core of the current story. Bitcoin, which just a week ago was selling off in lockstep with equity index futures as the Iran strikes hit weekend markets, is now moving independently higher while the Nasdaq stalls. Whether this decoupling holds is the question every macro trader should be asking right now.

Gold and Brent crude: The commodity picture

Gold (XAU/USD) is pulling back locally after its initial safe-haven surge, with price currently sitting around $5,164 and finding support near the $5,100 level. This is a fairly typical pattern: the spike response fades as markets assess whether the conflict is contained, and profit-taking sets in after the first sharp move. Immediate resistance sits around $5,400, with the major structural ceiling at $5,600. The rising trendline from the February lows remains intact, keeping the broader structure constructive as long as $5,100 holds.

Brent crude is telling a more volatile story. Price spiked sharply on the Iran strikes and is currently trading around $81.92, having cleared the $78 to $79 support zone which may now act as a base. The next major resistance above is the $85 level, which if broken to the upside, could open the door to a more significant extension. One thing to watch is a potential gap fill around the $73 area, which could come into play if de-escalation signals emerge and the initial risk premium unwinds. The $71 support level below that is the key structural floor on a deeper pullback.

What this means for traders

The current setup across these assets tells a nuanced story. Gold and Brent crude are at clear technical decision points, both having made their big initial moves and now consolidating. The Nasdaq is range-bound and still reflecting macro uncertainty. Bitcoin, by contrast, is moving, and it’s moving against the prevailing cautious mood in equities.

For traders, the key levels to watch are:

• Bitcoin: Hold above $70,000 keeps the bullish case intact. A move into $80,000 to $85,000 opens the next major decision point.
• Gold: A recovery back above $5,400 would re-establish bullish momentum; sustained weakness below $5,100 could signal a more meaningful pullback.
• Brent crude: A break above $85 on renewed Strait disruption fears would likely trigger the next risk-off wave across all assets.
• Nasdaq: A confirmed break above 25,200 would ease macro pressure; a break below 24,200 would likely drag Bitcoin back with it.

PrimeXBT: Trading across all of these from one platform

Events like the current Middle East conflict are a reminder that the most important market moves rarely happen in one asset class. The traders navigating this week most effectively are the ones watching oil, gold, Bitcoin, and equity indices simultaneously, because the relationships between them are telling a clearer story than any single chart alone.

PrimeXBT, a global multi-asset broker, supports this kind of cross-market approach by bringing crypto and traditional markets into one ecosystem. Traders can access foreign exchange, commodities such as oil and gold, global equity indices, and cryptocurrency markets from a single environment, allowing them to monitor and respond to macro shifts without moving between multiple platforms.

The structure reflects a broader shift in how crypto capital is used within financial markets. Instead of being limited to digital assets, it can increasingly be deployed across multiple markets. On platforms such as PXTrader 2.0, for example, assets like BTC or ETH can be used as collateral to gain exposure to CFD markets, extending the role of crypto from a standalone asset class into deployable trading capital.

Alongside this cross-market access, the platform provides competitive trading conditions and advanced tools designed to support active traders navigating both digital and traditional markets.

For traders who’ve built their foundation in crypto, the current environment may be the most compelling argument yet for going beyond it.

Start trading with PrimeXBT.

About PrimeXBT

PrimeXBT is a global multi-asset broker and crypto asset service provider trusted by traders in more than 150 countries. The platform bridges traditional and digital markets within one integrated environment, redefining versatility and innovation in online trading. Clients can access Forex, CFDs on indices, commodities, shares, crypto, and Crypto Futures, as well as buy, store and exchange cryptocurrencies directly. This unified experience extends across both the native PXTrader platform and MetaTrader 5, supported by advanced risk-management tools and a wide range of funding options in crypto, fiat and local payment methods. Since 2018, PrimeXBT has focused on empowering traders through broad multi-asset access, fair and transparent conditions, professional-grade technology and dedicated human support. By combining expertise, trust and a client-first approach, PrimeXBT sets a benchmark of excellence in the financial industry and provides traders with the tools they need to trade, grow and succeed with confidence.

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