XRP Long-Term Holders in ‘Denial’ Despite Aggressive Selloffs in Korean Markets

XRP’s (XRP) long-term holders are showing unwavering conviction despite a recent price correction. On-chain data reveals that investors are clinging to optimism even as technical and psychological risks mount. A convergence of whale accumulation, ETF anticipation, and a bullish chart pattern could define XRP’s next major move.

XRP Long-Term Holders Enter Denial Phase

The latest XRP Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart from Glassnode indicates that investors have entered the “denial” phase of the market cycle. This phase, marked in green, occurs after euphoric peaks fade, yet investors maintain hope that prices will rebound.

Since mid-December, XRP’s NUPL has hovered between 0.55 and 0.65, squarely in the denial zone.

Even as XRP’s price fell from above $3 to around $2, long-term holders have not significantly reduced their exposure. This reluctance to sell suggests investors are holding onto the belief that bullish momentum will return, despite signs of fading euphoria.

One of the key drivers behind this optimism is growing anticipation for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Several major firms—including Bitwise, WisdomTree, and Grayscale—have filed for spot XRP ETFs, with critical deadlines fast approaching.

Grayscale’s application faces a decision by May 22, 2025.

Whale Accumulation Supports Long-Term Outlook

Despite recent price weakness, the steady accumulation by large XRP holders, or “whales,” adds to the bullish narratives.

Glassnode data shows that the number of XRP addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP has climbed to record highs, surpassing 290,000 addresses. This rise in large holders—occurring even as price retraced from its peak—signals that high-net-worth investors are buying the dip rather than exiting their positions.

Historically, rising whale participation during corrections reflects strategic positioning for future upside, reinforcing confidence in XRP’s long-term prospects.

Falling Wedge Hints at Breakout — Koreans Disagree

From a technical perspective, XRP is consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish setup visible on the daily chart since January.

This pattern signals weakening selling pressure and a potential upside breakout. Key breakout levels lie near $2.20, with upside targets at $3.00–$3.40 and a projected peak of $3.68 based on the wedge’s height.

A confirmed breakout above resistance could mark the end of the consolidation phase and reignite bullish momentum.

However, traders must also consider the bearish scenario if the wedge fails to break upward. A breakdown below the lower trendline could invalidate the bullish setup and open the door to deeper losses, with downside risks toward the $1.80–$1.70 zone.

Such a failure would challenge the current optimism and could accelerate a transition from denial to fear or capitulation.

One warning sign comes from spot market flows.

According to Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data, the $XRP/KRW pair on Upbit has seen over 220 million XRP net sold since April 11, equivalent to more than $500 million offloaded in under a month.

The selling pressure from the Korean market signals a notable shift in sentiment, suggesting that Korean traders may have turned bearish on XRP despite broader optimism in Western markets.