3 Bitcoin On-Chain Signals To Watch As BTC Price Eyes $100K-Breakdown

Bitcoin’s (BTC) interim price forecast is looking more and more skewed to the downside owing to renewed trade tensions between the US and China, which is triggering a classic bearish reversal setup. A slew of onchain indicators are further suggesting a bullish-to-bearish transition in the market sentiment.

In June, BTC’s price may dip below $100,000 as a result. Let’s examine the technical setup first.

Bitcoin’s Head-and-Shoulders Setup Enters Final Stage

BTC/USD appears to be forming a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart, often considered a precursor to trend reversals. The setup includes a left shoulder around $106,000, a head near $115,000, and a right shoulder around $108,000, with neckline support at approximately $104,000.

A decisive break below this neckline could trigger a downside move toward $95,575, calculated by measuring the height from the head to the neckline and projecting it downward.

Notably, this target aligns with Bitcoin’s previous consolidation zone in April, adding weight to its validity as a potential support level.

Stablecoin Outflows Point to Waning Liquidity

Onchain data from CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha shows that more than $1 billion in stablecoins exited Binance in late May.

These outflows represent a sharp drop in exchange liquidity, implying that traders are moving capital off exchanges, either to secure profits or prepare for broader market instability.

Stablecoin netflows are a critical signal for market readiness. High inflows suggest potential buying power, while large outflows, such as the one observed, typically accompany bearish phases or at least hesitation to buy into strength.

Long-Term Holders Are Locking in Bitcoin Profits

Long-term holders (LTHs) have sharply reduced their exposure.

Their Net Position Realized Cap plunged from $28 billion to just $2 billion over the past few weeks. The sudden reduction signals that seasoned investors may no longer see attractive upside in current BTC levels.

Historically, LTH sell-offs have preceded local tops, especially when accompanied by waning spot demand and declining exchange activity. Their exit from the market coincides with increased volatility and a loss of confidence at the higher price bands.

Small Bitcoin Whales Are Accumulating, But It May Not Be Enough

Interestingly, mid-sized wallet cohorts holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have aggressively accumulated during the recent rally. Their net position has increased by over 150,000 BTC, while larger whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) have been net sellers.

This divergence indicates a handover from institutions to smaller holders, often a feature of late-stage rallies. Mid-tier accumulation can support prices in the short term, but rarely replace the market-moving power of institutional capital exiting.