3 Bitcoin Price Signals To Watch as BTC Shrugs Off Israel-Iran War Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered sharply from the sell-off that occurred on June 13, when the latest Israel-Iran conflict began. The cryptocurrency is up by over 6.50% since then, wobbling between intraday gains and losses, and was trading for as high as $107,775 as of June 17.

That said, Bitcoin traders appear unfazed by the escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran, with fresh onchain and derivatives market data furthering a bullish outlook.

Bitcoin Exchange Flows Remain Stable

BTC’s exchange netflow — the difference between coins moving onto and off of centralized exchanges — has shown no meaningful increase since June 11, when news of the conflict broke. A surge in net inflows typically signals panic, as traders rush to sell.

But data from CryptoQuant shows that netflows have remained negative or neutral since the headlines emerged, suggesting no wave of sell-side pressure has arrived, at least for now.

Open Interest Holds Despite BTC Price Pullback

Open interest across all exchanges has also remained resilient. While Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped below $100,000 following the initial war headlines, total open interest only declined modestly, still holding around $33.5 billion at the time of writing.

The absence of sharp liquidations or a mass closure of long positions suggests that traders are maintaining conviction in BTC’s broader uptrend, even amid geopolitical uncertainty.

CME Futures Data Shows Minor BTC Outflows

Institutional open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has similarly dipped, but not dramatically. Positions expiring within the next two months saw minor declines, but the broader futures curve remains stable.

That suggests fund managers and large speculators are reducing short-term exposure, but not exiting the market in size.

BTC Market Reaction Signals Calm For Now

Across spot and derivatives markets, there is no sign of mass panic or capital flight. Onchain flows remain contained, and both retail and institutional participants are keeping risk on the table.

This mirrors similar episodes from the past, where local geopolitical flare-ups led to short-term price wobbles, but no major structural damage to Bitcoin’s market.

Still, CryptoQuant analyst CryptoMe warns that this could change quickly if the conflict escalates into broader regional instability.

“It’s UNCERTAIN whether this will continue, whether the WAR and tension will escalate, or whether the markets will react NEGATIVELY LATER […] The smartest move right now is to use the “WAIT AND SEE” approach.”