ADA, DOT, ETH, and SOL Weekly Review – ADA and SOL Lead a Bearish Week

Key Insights:

• It was a bearish Monday to Saturday, with the total crypto market cap falling by $30.4 billion to $876.3 billion.
• US economic indicators and rising bets of 75-basis point Fed rate hikes in November and December weighed.
• Technical indicators are bearish, with increased uncertainty about the economic outlook adding further pressure.

Monday to Saturday, the crypto market cap fell by $30.4 billion to $876.3 billion, reversing a $17.0 billion rise from the previous week.

Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine and Fed fear kicked off a bearish week. The market cap fell by $18.3 billion on Monday.

US economic indicators added to the bearish mood. US wholesale and consumer price inflation figures fueled bets of more hawkish Fed hikes in November and December.

US retail sales and consumer sentiment figures added fuel to the Fed fire, with sustained consumer spending, a pickup in consumer confidence, and consumer sentiment towards inflation delivering a bearish session.

This morning, the probability of a 75-basis point hike in November stood at 97.2% and 69.8% for December. Last week, the chance of a 75-basis point hike in December stood at 23.4%.

FOMC meeting minutes from mid-week provided some brief relief. The minutes revealed the willingness of some members to take their foot off the gas if economic conditions deteriorate.

Going into the Sunday session, cardano (ADA), ethereum (ETH), polkadot (DOT), and solana (SOL) were all in negative territory for the week.

Cardano (ADA)

Monday to Saturday, ADA was down 13.95% to 0.364. Bearish throughout the week, ADA slid from a Monday high of $0.427 to a Thursday and a new October low of $0.350. Despite bearish Friday and Saturday sessions, ADA briefly recovered to $0.382 before returning to the deep red.

Network updates remained bearish, with post-Vasil hard fork project numbers delivering downward price pressures.

On Friday, Input Output HK shared the weekly development report as of October 14. Network highlights from the weekly development report included,

• Ongoing work on core technology improvements.
• Upcoming Daedalus release to resolve the min-fee calculation issue.
• 102 projects launched on Cardano, unchanged from the previous week.
• 1,120 projects are building on Cardano, up by three from the previous week.

Before the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano had stood at 98, with 1,100 projects building on the Cardano network.

On a trend analysis basis, ADA would need to move through the August high of $0.595 to break through the June high of $0.6688 and target the May high of $0.906. A return to $0.55 will be the key. However, a fall through the October low of $0.350 would give the bears a look at sub-$0.300.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal.

ADA sat below the 50-day, currently at $0.390. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA sliding back from the 200-day EMAs, delivering bearish signals.

An ADA move through the 50-day EMA ($0.390) would support a return to $0.400 to bring the 100-day EMA ($0.408) into view. The 200-day EMA sits at $0.429. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.390) would leave sub-$0.300 in play.

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT was down by 6.64% to $6.05, Monday through Saturday.

A bearish week saw DOT fall from a Monday high of $6.54 to a Thursday and a new October low of $5.65. However, finding broader crypto market support, DOT briefly revisited $6.27 before easing back to sub-$6.10.

Network updates failed to deliver support, despite a pickup in development activity. The Polkadot network provided a detailed report on network activity that included total project numbers on the Polkadot and Kusama ecosystems.

Looking at the trends, a DOT move through the August high of $9.68 would support a run at $10.00 and the June high of $10.73. From $10.73, DOT would have a clear run at the May high of $16.44. DOT would need to break down resistance at the September high of $8.05 to support a shift in sentiment.

However, DOT will have to avoid the week’s low of $5.65 to prevent a continued fall to sub-$5.00.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, the signal was bearish.

DOT sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $6.19. The 100-day EMA fell back from the 200-day EMA, with the 50-day EMA easing back from the 100-day EMA. The indicators delivered negative price signals.

DOT would need to move through the 50-day EMA ($6.19) and the 100-day EMA ($6.29) to support a return to $6.50. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would give the bears a run at sub-$5.00.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH also had a bearish Monday to Saturday, falling by 3.63% to $1,275.

Tracking the broader market, ETH fell to a Thursday and October low of $1,190 before finding support. A bullish Thursday saw ETH strike a Friday high of $1,344 before falling back into the red.

There were no major network updates to deliver ETH price support, leaving ETH in the hands of US economic indicators and sentiment toward the Fed’s policy goals.

Viewing the trends, an ETH return to $1,500 would support a breakout from the August high of $2,031 to target $2,500. From $2,500, the bulls would target the May high of $2,968 and $3,000. A return to $3,000 would give the bulls a run at the April high of $3,582.

A fall through the October low of $1,190 would give the bears a run at the June and the current year low of $880.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,302. The 50-day EMA slipped back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were ETH price negatives.

An ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,302) would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA (1,321) to target $1,350. The 200-day EMA sits at $1,372.

Failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave sub-$1,000 in play.

Solana (SOL)

SOL was down 10.13% to $29.5925, Monday through Saturday.

Tracking the broader crypto market, SOL fell from a Monday high of $33.4650 to a Thursday low of $27.4425. However, finding crypto market support, SOL tested resistance at $32 before falling back into the deep red.

NFT and network updates added further downside pressure, with news of the Mango Markets hack and NFT bear market SOL price negative.

Looking at the trends, a move through the August high of $48.42 would give the bulls a run at the May high of $95.19. SOL would need plenty of support to break out from $75. However, a fall through the October low of $27.4425 would leave the June and the current year low of $25.78 in view.

Looking at the EMAs, based on the 4-hourly, it was a bearish signal. SOL sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $31.2103. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were price negatives.

An SOL move through the 50-day EMA would support a breakout from the 100-day EMA ($31.9028) to target the 200-day EMA ($32.7037). However, following the Friday slide from the 50-day EMA, a return to $30.00 would be the key to any recovery.