Altseason Bulls Are ‘MIA,’ Analyst Warns Amid $36B Altcoin Sell Pressure

Altcoins are lagging as Bitcoin holds above $100,000, with key trading data showing sustained sell pressure across the broader market, analyst Burak Kesmci argues.

Traders Sell $36B Worth of Altcoins

The 1-year cumulative buy/sell quote volume difference for altcoins — excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) — has plunged to -$36 billion as of June 2025. The figure reflects the net difference between buy and sell orders on centralized exchanges.

A negative reading signals sustained sell pressure across the altcoin market.

The last time this metric turned positive was in December 2024, coinciding with a local top in altcoins. Since then, it’s been downhill, even as Bitcoin broke above six figures.

In effect, altcoin investors have disappeared, or as the data suggests, they’re “MIA.”

“Even though Bitcoin is enjoying a bull run, altcoins are behaving like it’s still winter,” wrote Kesmci, adding:

“Unless this metric starts rising again, expecting a full-blown altseason or altcoin FOMO might just be wishful thinking.”

Historically, strong altcoin performance has followed sharp recoveries in this metric, when net buying returns and confidence build across the market. Without that shift, expectations for an imminent altseason may be premature.

Part of the reason could be investor risk appetite.

With global economic uncertainty lingering and regulatory clarity limited in many regions, traders appear to be rotating capital into Bitcoin as a safer, more liquid asset, while sidelining altcoins with higher volatility and lower trust.

Altcoin ETFs Could Influence Demand

Altcoin-focused ETFs have the potential to drive renewed investor interest by offering exposure to digital assets via regulated funds. US spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum have each drawn billions in inflows and set a strong precedent.

According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, the SEC now assigns 90% approval odds to Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) spot ETF filings, with XRP at 85%, Dogecoin (DOGE) at 80%, and Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and Polkadot (DOT) each sitting at 75%.

Key decision timelines include:

• July 2, 2025: Basket-style crypto/index ETF filings are due, with Bloomberg assigning them a 90% chance of approval

• Late Q4 2025: Final windows for single-asset approvals—SOL, LTC (October), XRP (November), DOGE (December), ADA, DOT, AVAX (November)

Seyffart emphasizes that while early approvals may happen in late June or early July, the more realistic time frame is Q4 2025

ETFs may increase demand for select altcoins, but may not meaningfully shift the overall altcoin market if smaller-cap tokens remain excluded. Additionally, since the CryptoQuant metric reflects spot exchange activity, ETF-driven demand must translate into real buying pressure on those platforms to have a measurable effect.