BTC Price Forecast: ETF Inflows and Treasury Moves Support Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin Defies Geopolitical Tensions as ETF Inflows and Treasury Demand Surge

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped 0.59% on Saturday, June 14, reversing Friday’s 0.26% gain to close at $105,482. Notably, BTC mirrored the broader crypto market, which fell 0.87% to a total market cap of $3.23 trillion.

Concerns about an escalation in the Iran-Israeli conflict pressured demand for risk assets. However, BTC continued trading above the crucial $100,000 threshold. US BTC-spot ETF inflows and rising corporate demand helped cushion the losses.

The US BTC-spot ETF market snapped a two-week outflow streak in the week ending June 13. Farside Investors reported that ETF issuers recorded weekly net inflows of $1,370 million after net outflows of $131.6 million from the previous week. BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continued to dominate, with weekly net inflows of $1,115.9 million.

After $5,232.1 million of net inflows in May, June’s net inflows currently stand at $1,238.4 million.

US BTC-spot ETF flows continue to influence BTC price trends. Bitcoin climbed to a May all-time high of $111,917 as net inflows soared.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin treasury balances have trended higher as more firms look to diversify balance sheet assets. According to HODL15Capital, the top 100 companies hold over 818,000 BTC, with 20 firms increasing their Bitcoin treasury. MicroStrategy (MSTR) topped the table with 582,000 BTC, followed by Marathon Digital and TwentyOne, holding 49,179 and 37,230 BTC, respectively.

Significantly, Trump Media & Technology Group received SEC approval for its Bitcoin treasury on June 13. The company has access to around $2.3 billion in capital, potentially enabling the creation of one of the largest Bitcoin holdings for a public company.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term price trajectory hinges on several key macro and market drivers:

• Trade developments will affect risk appetite and broader crypto market demand.
• Legislative updates, including Bitcoin Act-related news.
• The upcoming FOMC interest rate decision, economic projections, and press conference (June 18).
• Geopolitical risks: Iran-Israeli conflict-related headlines.
• US BTC-spot ETF flows remain crucial to near-term price trends.

BTC Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario: Easing geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed guidance, bipartisan support for crypto bills, and ETF inflows may drive BTC toward $111,917.
• Bearish Scenario: Rising geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed stance, legislative roadblocks, or ETF outflows could push BTC below $100,000.

For ongoing insights into macro trends, regulation, and ETF data, follow our analysis here.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC remains above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), affirming bullish momentum.

• Upside Target: A breakout from $105,000 could pave the way to testing resistance at the record high of $111,917. A sustained move above $111,917 may enable the bulls to target $115,000.
• Downside Risk: A break below the 50-day EMA and $100,000 could bring $95,000 and potentially the 200-day EMA into play.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.32 indicates BTC has room to climb to $111,917 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Turning to ethereum (ETH), ETH trades above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs despite a four-day losing streak, confirming bullish momentum.

ETH-spot ETFs snapped a nineteen-day inflow streak on June 13, contributing to the losing streak as Middle East tensions impacted crypto demand.

• Upside target: A breakout above the $2,815 resistance level and the June 11 high of $2,879 could open the door to a move toward $3,000. A sustained move through $3,000 may enable the bulls to target the $3,287 resistance level.
• Downside risks: If ETH drops below the 200-day and 50-day EMAs, $2,308 would be the next key support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.76 suggests ETH could drop to the $2,308 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI< 30).

Stay informed on BTC and ETH trends by tracking macroeconomic developments, ETF flows, and technical indicators here.