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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: Aussie Retail Sales in Focus

By:
Bob Mason
Published: May 25, 2023, 21:51 UTC

The AUD/USD is in action this morning, with retail sales figures due. However, US economic indicators and debt ceiling updates will have the final say.

AUD/USD & NZD/USD tech analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

It is a relatively quiet Friday session for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. Prelim Australian retail sales figures will be in focus this morning.

After the latest RBA 25-basis point interest rate hike, a larger-than-expected rise in retail sales would keep pressure on the RBA to tackle spending and inflation. Economists forecast retail sales to increase by 0.3% in April following a 0.4% rise in March.

While the numbers should draw investor interest, US debt ceiling-related news will impact the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs. A continued lack of progress toward raising the ceiling would pressure the Aussie and Kiwi.

Looking ahead to the US session, it is a busy US economic calendar. Core durable goods orders, Core PCE Price Index, personal spending/income, and Michigan consumer sentiment numbers will be in focus.

We expect the Core PCE Price Index numbers to have the most impact. Sticky inflation would fuel bets of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June and ease expectations of an H2 interest rate cut.

Economists forecast the Core PCE Price Index to increase by 4.6% year-over-year in April versus 4.6% in March.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike in June jumped from 36.4% to 52.2% on Thursday. Better-than-expected labor market and GDP numbers supported the shift in sentiment ahead of today’s inflation numbers.

AUD/USD Price Action

This morning, the AUD/USD was up 0.02% to $0.65057. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.64994 before rising to a high of $0.65072.

AUD/USD holds steady.
AUDUSD 260523 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

R1 – $ 0.6535 S1 – $ 0.6486
R2 – $ 0.6565 S2 – $ 0.6468
R3 – $ 0.6614 S3 – $ 0.6419

The AUD/USD needs to move through the $0.6517 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6535 and the Thursday high of $0.65471. A return to $0.6520 would signal a bullish session. However, economic indicators and debt ceiling news must support a breakout.

In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test resistance at the Wednesday high of $0.66153 but fall short of the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6565. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6614.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6486 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub $0.6450. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6468 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6419.

AUD/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
AUDUSD 260523 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bearish signals. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.66102. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An AUD/USD move through R1 ($0.6535) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6565) and the 50-day EMA ($0.66102). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.66102) would leave S1 ($0.6486) in view. An AUD/USD move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

EMAs are bearish.
AUDUSD 260523 4 Hourly Chart

NZD/USD Price Action

This morning, the NZD/USD was down 0.02% to $0.60615. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall to an early low of $0.60575 before rising to a high of $0.60634.

NZD/USD sees red.
NZDUSD 260523 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

R1 – $ 0.6103 S1 – $ 0.6033
R2 – $ 0.6144 S2 – $ 0.6003
R3 – $ 0.6214 S3 – $ 0.5933

The NZD/USD has to move through the $0.6074 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6103 and the Thursday high of $0.61141. A return to $0.61 would signal a bullish session. However, US debt ceiling news must support a session breakout.

In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test resistance at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6144. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6214.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6033 in play. However, barring a Washington-induced sell-off, the NZD/USD should steer clear of sub-$0.60. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6003 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.5933.

NZD/USD support levels in play below the pivot.
NZDUSD 260523 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs were bearish. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.61968. The 50-day EMA pulled back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA falling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

An NZD/USD move through R1 ($0.6103) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6144) and the 50-day EMA ($0.61968). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.61968) would leave S1 ($0.6033) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

EMAs are bearish.
NZDUSD 260523 4 Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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