AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis: US Debt Ceiling in the Spotlight
It is a relatively quiet Tuesday session for the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD. Property sector numbers from New Zealand and Australia will be in focus this morning.
New Zealand building consents and Australian building approvals will give investors a sense of how central bank moves to curb inflation have impacted the sector. Better-than-expected numbers would normally deliver support.
However, US debt ceiling-related news will remain the focal point ahead of private sector PMI numbers from China later this week.
Looking ahead to the US session, US consumer confidence numbers will move the dial. Sentiment toward the US debt ceiling and Fed monetary policy could deliver a larger-than-expected decline. Economists forecast the CB Consumer Confidence Index to fall from 101.3 to 99.0.
AUD/USD Price Action
This morning, the AUD/USD was up 0.02% to $0.65385. A mixed start to the day saw the AUD/USD fall to an early low of $0.65353 before rising to a high of $0.65390.
Technical Indicators
Resistance & Support Levels
| R1 – $ | 0.6555 | S1 – $ | 0.6519 |
| R2 – $ | 0.6572 | S2 – $ | 0.6501 |
| R3 – $ | 0.6608 | S3 – $ | 0.6465 |
The AUD/USD needs to avoid the $0.6536 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6555. A move through the Monday high of $0.6554 would signal a bullish session. However, economic indicators and the debt ceiling news must support a breakout.
In case of a breakout session, the Aussie would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6572. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6608.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6519 into play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, the AUD/USD pair should avoid sub $0.65. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6501 should limit the downside.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.6465.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bearish signals. The AUD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.65801. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.
An AUD/USD move through R1 ($0.6555) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6572) and the 50-day EMA ($0.65801). However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.65801) would leave S1 ($0.6519) in view. An AUD/USD move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.
NZD/USD Price Action
This morning, the NZD/USD was down 0.01% to $0.60526. A mixed start to the day saw the NZD/USD fall to an early low of $0.60514 before rising to a high of $0.60562.
Technical Indicators
Resistance & Support Levels
| R1 – $ | 0.6069 | S1 – $ | 0.6039 |
| R2 – $ | 0.6085 | S2 – $ | 0.6025 |
| R3 – $ | 0.6114 | S3 – $ | 0.5996 |
The NZD/USD has to move through the $0.6055 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.6069 and the Monday high of $0.60707. A return to $0.6060 would signal a bullish session. However, the economic indicators and US debt ceiling news must support a session breakout.
In the case of a breakout session, the Kiwi would likely test resistance at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.6085. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.6114.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.6039 in play. However, barring a Washington-induced sell-off, the NZD/USD should steer clear of sub-$0.60. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.6025 should limit the downside.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.5996.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs were bearish. The NZD/USD sits below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.61441. The 50-day EMA slid back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.
An NZD/USD move through R1 ($0.6069) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($0.6085) and $0.61. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.61441) would leave S1 ($0.6039) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.
