AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Aussie Drifting Higher Ahead of RBA Rate Decision

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading higher on Tuesday shortly before the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision and the government’s annual budget. Earlier in the session, Australia released the latest data on ANZ Job Advertisements and the Trade Balance

At 02:37 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7190, up 0.0008 or +0.11% and the NZD/USD is at .6650, up 0.0007 or +0.10%.

ANZ Report Shows Rise in Australian Job Advertisements

Australian job advertisements climbed for the fifth straight month in September in a positive sign for the economy which re-opened from coronavirus lockdowns earlier-than-expected, though ads were still down on a year earlier.

Tuesday’s figures from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group ANZ showed total job ads grew 7.8% to an average 118, 424, almost double from a low of 63,565 in May.

Ads have bounced every single month since a record plunge of 53.2% in April when the first wave of lockdowns hit.

Despite the gains, ads were still down about 25% on September last year.

“The question now is whether a return to pre-pandemic levels of job ads and vacancies would be enough to entrench a solid labor market recovery,” said ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch.

“Right now, we need to get a huge volume of people – who were until recently employed – back into the workforce, along with new entrants and those wanting to re-enter the workforce,” Birch added.

“This suggests that job ads and vacancies may need to sustain materially higher levels for some time.”

Australian Trade Balance Retreats

The country’s balance of goods and services declined 43% from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to trade data released Tuesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The ABS said that Australia had a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$2.643 billion in August. That was shy of expectations for a surplus of A$5.154 billion and was down from A$5.607 billion in July.

Exports were down 4.0 percent for the second straight month, while imports gained 2.0 percent on month after rising 7.0 percent in the previous month.

RBA on Tap

The RBA has slashed rates to a record low of 0.25% and is expected to reiterate its willingness to do more if needed at a monthly policy meeting at 03:30 GMT. Rates are expected to remain at 0.25%, but the odds are increasing for a rate cut down to 0.10% in November.