Australia Interest Rate

Australia’s Q3 2025 inflation was “a little larger than expected,” minutes from the Reserve Bank's November meeting showed. While some of the underlying inflation pickup was seen as temporary, members flagged signs of more persistent pressures, possibly due to tighter-than-expected spare capacity. The labour market remained slightly tight, with unemployment expected to stay broadly stable. Financial conditions had eased after 75bps of rate cuts this year, though signals were mixed. Policy was still viewed as slightly restrictive, and the board saw “no need to adjust” the cash rate. Patience was deemed appropriate while assessing spare capacity, labour trends, and policy stance. Scenarios supporting a hold included stronger demand, lower supply capacity, or a view that policy was no longer restrictive. Conversely, further easing could be warranted if labour conditions weaken or growth disappoints. The central bank maintained a cautious, data-dependent approach amid ongoing uncertainty.