Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Price Forecast: Reversal Signals Build After 60% Decline

Early Signs of a Bottom After Sharp Decline

Despite downward pressure on equity markets, the stock of Oracle Corporation (ORCL) is showing initial signs of a potential bottom. Signs of a bullish reversal are appearing on both the daily and weekly charts, following a decline of $210.47 (60.9%) to a retracement low of $135.25 four weeks ago. ORCL was hit by a sector-wide selloff in enterprise software stocks, as fears grew about the negative impact of AI on certain business models. Oracle is scheduled to report Q3 FY2026 earnings next Tuesday, March 10, after the market close.

Support Holds as Double Bottom Structure Develops

Support for the bearish correction was seen near a long-term uptrend line and the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing at $144.72. Since the low, a potential double bottom reversal has formed with a neckline at $165.39. Strength was seen this week, as the stock reclaimed the 20-day moving average on Wednesday. It then confirmed the average as support over the next two days. Both Thursday’s and Friday’s lows tested support near the 20-day moving average.

Downtrend Line Test Follows Higher Swing Low

On Friday, ORCL advanced following a test of support at the average, to an 11-day high of $158.97, testing resistance near the downtrend line that defines the bearish correction. That came after a higher swing low at $138.59 reached last week. That low may mark the second bottom of the formation. A one-week bullish reversal triggered this week with a rally above last week’s high of $153.28.

Key Breakout Levels to Watch

The double bottom reversal pattern would trigger on a decisive breakout above $165.39. To trigger the breakout, ORCL would first need to break above the downtrend line and show continued strength. The 50-day moving average is at $170.70 and falling. This means that a breakout of the double bottom may occur near resistance at the 50-day moving average providing additional confirmation of strength. The 50-day line has defined resistance during the downtrend since it failed to hold as support on October 30.

Upside Targets Near Prior Resistance Zone

An initial target derived from the pattern points to $195.16 and $195.53. The first target is measured on a percentage basis, and the second level is based on price. That range is close to prior resistance at the December 2024 peak of $198.31, and the 100-day moving average is approaching the zone. It is now at $202.77 and falling.

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