Tilray Brands (TLRY) Price Forecast: Cannabis Rescheduling Fuels Recovery

Macro Catalyst Awakens Sector Potential

Cannabis-related stocks and ETFs have been among the worst-performing groups in recent years. A peak was reached in 2021 when there was a speculative frenzy and rush for exposure to the industry, that ended with sharp selloffs. Since then, stocks in the sector have largely been in long-term downtrends. However, that may be about to change as it has been reported that the White House has told federal agencies to move toward rescheduling cannabis from a Schedule I drug like heroin to a Schedule III drug like painkillers.

This change is expected to further legitimize the industry and eventually resolve constraints due to federal laws that restrict cannabis businesses from accessing proper banking facilities, trademark protections, and other restrictions. Such a shift could finally ignite the long-awaited reversal for the battered sector leaders like Tilray Brands (TLRY).

IPO Euphoria to Historic Decline

Tilray Brands, Inc. is a global packed goods company focused on cannabis, beverage alcohol, and wellness products. It researches, cultivates, processes, and distributes medical and adult-use cannabis products and operates globally. Its stock had its IPO in July 2018 and opened at $297.70. It quickly spiked to a peak around $3,000 and has been in a downtrend ever since, eventually reaching a low of $3.51 in June 2025. At that low, the stock was down by 99.9% from the peak in 81 months. New legislation at the federal level could be the catalyst needed to reverse the slide.

Momentum Builds at Key Resistance Zone

TLRY stock spiked to a 10-week high of $8.16 on Tuesday with heavy volume. It had its highest volume since mid-December – over five times the 20-day average. The 50-day moving average was reclaimed during the advance for the first time since it was last broken in mid-December and a one-month bullish reversal triggered above $7.75. Resistance is seen at the confluence of a downtrend line, the 100-day moving average (now at $8.06) and price structure nearby a lower swing high of $8.31 from February.

Reversal Pattern Emerges from Deep Pullback

The advance follows the first pullback low after a sharp impulse rally of approximately 564% in only 15 weeks that occurred from the June low. Support was seen near the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of that impulse leg. Subsequently, two weeks ago, a breakout from a falling wedge pattern triggered a bottom reversal.

Upside Trigger and Measured Target

If TLRY can continue to show strength, there is a chance of reaching the top of the wedge and lower swing high at $15.70 initially. The next bullish signal would come above $8.31. That would trigger a recovery of a trendline and 100-day moving average, potentially propelling shares toward that pivotal $15.70 level and validating the sector’s broader resurgence amid rescheduling momentum.

If you’d like to know more about technical analysis and how traders use it, please visit our educational area.