S&P 500 Forecast: 7,100 Reclaimed as Ceasefire Extension and AI Earnings Fuel the Tape

Risk is back on. Traders are bidding aggressively after news of an indefinite US-Iran ceasefire extension hit the wires. This was enough, apparently, to paper over the reality of US Navy blockades and active ship seizures in the Strait of Hormuz.

There’s a genuine tug-of-war playing out here. Headlines are positive. But the physical crude market isn’t buying it where oil is stubbornly above $95, and that disconnect is worth watching. Markets want an exit from the geopolitical noise, and right now a diplomatic headline is enough to provide one.

S&P 500 up over 0.75% as of writing. Buyers are in control.

AI Build-Out Saves the Construction Labor Market

JPMorgan’s move to hike its price target to 7,600 and its 2026 EPS forecast to $330 reflects a regime shift toward aggressive upward revisions. While office construction is a ghost town, data center spending has skyrocketed to $47 billion. This real-world transition is the reason why the SOX index notched a record 16-day winning streak. We aren’t just betting on chatbots anymore. We’re front-running the reasoning capabilities of models like Anthropic’s Mythos, which suggests the AI industry is nowhere near its ceiling. Investors are seeing capex translate into actual revenue.

Earnings Momentum vs. The $100 Oil

The setup is straightforward. S&P 500 earnings growth is now projected at 12.5% for Q1, marking the sixth straight quarter of double-digit expansion. GE Vernova and Boston Scientific provided massive boosts today after beating expectations, reinforcing the idea that corporate America is handling high costs better than the bears anticipated. But we can’t ignore energy. Brent oil trading around $100 keeps the inflation flare-up risk alive. If the ceasefire falls apart or the Hormuz blockade intensifies, the Fed will be forced into a hawkish corner. For now, the flows are overpowering the fears.

Renko Bricks Signal Bullish Digestion Phase

On the 11-brick Renko, the consolidation continues. We saw a stair-step advance that pushed fresh highs into the 7,150s, followed by a shallow pullback that hasn’t broken a thing. Price is comfortably above the 500-SMA which keeps the broader trend exactly where bulls want it.

RSI nearing 60 is the sweet spot. Overbought heat gone, structural advance untouched. The Z-score SMA drifting toward neutral tells the same story. This is a market digesting gains, not distributing them.

Last 24 hours reads as a bullish reset. Nothing more dramatic than that.

S&P 500 Consolidates as Positive Momentum Resets

11-point Renko chart of S&P 500 showing bullish consolidation above 500-SMA. Source: TradingView

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Key Support Levels: 6,310,6,750,

Key Resistance Levels: 7,200,7300

Medium Term Path: I expect the S&P 500 to clear the 7,150-7,160 zone before May. The combination of structural AI earnings growth and the technical reclaim of the ST uptrend area on the Renko chart is a powerful cocktail. While the VIX bouncing around 20 may suggest some underlying anxiety, the heavy bearish positioning in the options market (1.43 put-call ratio) acts as fuel for a continued squeeze. Buy the dips until the 7,074 support breaks.