AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Bulls Hold 21-EMA as June Seasonality Keeps 0.72715 in Play

Heat Map Shows Mild Aussie Weakness

AUD/USD is down 0.10%, a mild move down on the 1st trading day for June. It’s also weak in the other FX crosses. AUD/EUR is down 0.10%, AUD/GBP is also down 0.23%, and AUD/JPY is softer by only 0.04%. Quiet session today.

AUD Weakens Against USD, EUR, GBP, and JPY

June Seasonality Helps A Little

When looking at seasonality, it gives Aussie bulls a tailwind. June has averaged 0.26% with more positive years than negative ones in the same displayed below. Furthermore, AUD/USD is still up over 7% YTD in 2026, even after May’s decline. This is useful to know but of course additional factors would be required to truly get a better understanding of the trend going forward.

AUD/USD Seasonality Shows June Has Been Positive On Average

Weekly AUD/USD Targets 0.72715

AUD/USD is trading just under the prior pivot and Fibonacci level near 0.71876 on the Weekly Chart. Above that, there’s resistance near 0.72713 and then 0.74067. The weekly Supertrend indicators are providing sturdy support which is really good for the medium term uptrend of AUD/USD. But the FX Cross needs to get back some momentum and get above 0.72715.

Weekly AUD/USD Traders Near Fibonacci Resistance at 0.71875

Daily Chart Needs More Momentum

Looking at the daily chart, AUD/USD pulled back from 0.72775 and found support around the 0.71015 level and is sitting on the 21-EMA. RSI is above 50 which is good so some positive momentum is there. But we need more.

Daily AUD/USD Holds Near The 21-EMA After Pulling Back From 0.72775

Renko AUD/JPY Confirms Risk Appetite

AUD/JPY is testing resistance, with the bricks above their 21-EMA, 50-SMA and 500-SMA. All green from a trend perspective. RSI is a little above 60. This is an illustration of strong positive momentum. This is corroborated by a rising Z-Score SMA. It’s above 1 so the indicator is not exhausted but it’s getting there. This structure on AUD/JPY should provide some assistance for AUD/USD.

AUD/JPY 0.225-Brick Renko Shows Strong Aussie Momentum Against The Yen

AUD/USD Renko Holds Bullish Base

AUD/USD is currently showing a red brick so momentum cooled a bit. The RSI is lower but still above 50 while the Z-Score SMA is trending higher but above 1.50. We may need a continued dip in AUD/USD before another strong leg in positive momentum is taken by the bulls. The FX cross remains above trend by being above its 21-EMA, 50-SMA and 500-SMA.

AUD/USD 0.0015-Brick Renko Holds Above MAs

The Verdict

Current Trend Direction: Bullish

Bias: Positive

Support Levels: 0.6833,0.71015,0.70720

Resistance Levels: 0.72715, 0.74070

Medium Term Path: I’m overall bullish on AUD/USD. The medium term structure on the weekly chart looks promising and AUD/USD is sitting on the 21-EMA on the daily chart. More so, AUD/JPY looks very positive as well when we look at the Renko chart. But it seems the real test for June will be to get over the 0.71015 resistance level.