AUD/USD Forecast – Aussie Continues to See Chop

Christopher Lewis
Updated: Feb 19, 2024, 15:39 GMT+00:00

The Aussie dollar has gone back and forth during the session on Monday, as it was noisy due to a lack of liquidity, with the Americans celebrating President’s Day.

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Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it’s worth noting that it was President’s day in the United States and therefore liquidity may have been a little bit off at times. The New York session of course is greatly influenced and it’s also worth noting that the market is one that’s still trying to sort out whether or not we are going to see risk on or risk off.

Remember, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to that. And the daily candlestick, although it did break above the 0.6550 level, pulled back just a bit as we headed into New York. The 50-day EMA above is a potential target, and then we have the 200-day EMA above that is going to be a barrier. Underneath, we have the 0.65 level and the 0.6450 level, which both offer support. Anything below there probably sends the Aussie lower and then possibly even a run to the US dollar in general. You’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. But I do think that more likely than not, we will see more choppiness than anything else. As we continue to use the 0.65 level as a bit of a pivot point.

All things being equal, this is a market that is basically trying to find out whether or not global trade is going to continue. We have the Fed loosening later this year, so that might help the Aussie, but we also have the situation where we have a trouble spot around the world just waiting to flare up and perhaps people running to the US dollar as a result. If that’s the case, then the market is likely to continue to be very noisy and concerned about a lot of different things, thereby adding more volatility to the picture than anything else. With this being the case, be conscious of your position sizing.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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