AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Bounces From the 200-Day EMA

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 20.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen during the early hours against the US dollar, reaching down to the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA is of course an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, and the fact that the market reacted so aggressively to it does suggest that we are at least going to try to bounce from here. Keep an eye on the 0.68 level, which is an area where we had seen a lot of noise previously, and if we can take it out, then it’s possible that the market could go to the 0.69 level above, which is the area that we had formed a bit of a double top hat, and obviously if we were to break above there, it would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.

More likely than not, we probably go back and forth between this area and that area, as we try to sort this out. The Australian dollar of course is highly levered to commodities and global growth, so you will have to pay attention to what happens in places like China, and of course the global demand for commodities in general is highly influenced by growth in Asia.

If we were to turn and break down below the 200-Day EMA, then the 0.67 level is an area where I think you have an opportunity to see buyers jump back in, if we break down below there, then the next major support level is a 0.66. It does look like we are essentially treading water, and I think that continues to be the case, as the markets are trying to figure out what’s going to happen overall, as the global economy seems to be a major inflection point.

The Australian dollar will be thrown around because of this, and then of course we have questions about whether or not inflation is cooling off in the United States, which has a lot of influence on what happens with the US dollar and the Federal Reserve. In other words, I would expect to see a lot of noisy behavior, but right now I suspect that the buyers are at least trying to make some type of stand in this region.

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