AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Breaks Back Above 200-Day EMA

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 26.07.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is bullish during the Tuesday session as it looks like we are heading to the 0.68 level. The 0.68 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is probably more important to recognize that the market has sliced through there a couple of times. Because of this, I think it has somewhat limited influence, but if we were to break above there, then it opens up the possibility of the Aussie going to the 0.69 level. The 0.69 level is an area where we have seen a bit of a “double top”, so therefore it’s possible that it is the gateway to a much higher pricing if we can break above there.

That being said, we have the Federal Reserve coming out with an announcement on Wednesday, and that will have a major influence on where we go next. Because of this, it is probably difficult to trade for the next 24 hours, but once we get through the Federal Reserve announcement, we might have a better idea as to how the market will have to position itself in relation to interest rates. If the Federal Reserve is extraordinarily hawkish, that could send this pair lower. A breakdown below the 50-Day EMA opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.67 level, possibly even the 0.66 level. The 0.66 level is an area that previously had been massive support, so I would anticipate some buying in that area.

In general, this is a market that the traders out there are paying close attention to volatility as well, and of course the Aussie is very sensitive to the rest of the world, as it is a commodity currency and of course supplies quite a bit of Asia with its raw commodities, so it’s tied closely to the fortunes of China, which is starting to show signs of deceleration as well. With all of this, I think the Aussie is going to continue to be very noisy and that choppiness that we have seen over the last couple of months suggests that we have a lot of crosswinds that we have to deal with him.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.