AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Bounce Around

Christopher Lewis
Published: Feb 1, 2024, 13:51 UTC

The Aussie dollar has been fairly negative during the trading session early on Thursday but we are approaching a crucial level in the form of the 0.65 level that I think will have a lot to say.

Australian dollars, FX Empire

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AUD/USD Forecast Video for 02-02-2024

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Thursday to reach down towards the 0.65 level. The 0.65 level, of course, is an area that previously had been resistant, and it should now be supported. In fact, we are at the bottom of an overall consolidation area between 0.65 on the bottom and 0.69 on the top. If we do break down below the 0.65 level, then I think the Australian dollar probably goes looking to the 0.6350 level. The size of the candlestick certainly looks as if it is going to struggle to bounce from here, but we also have the non-farm payroll announcements coming out on Friday, and of course, the non-farm payroll announcement will have a major influence on the US dollar itself.

That will cause quite a bit of volatility and therefore that could be what causes the bounce. Either way, if we do rally from here, I believe that the 0.66 level is the first major barrier to overcome. And then if we can go above there, then the 0.67 level will more likely than not be the next target and it is essentially fair value.

Fair value, of course, is right in the middle of the longer term consolidation region. We will have to see what the jobs number beholds, and at this point, I think if we were to break down from here, then that probably sees the US dollar strengthening against almost everything, not just the Australian dollar. With this, I think we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the 0.65 handle.

This is an area that has been important multiple times, so I think this will be front and center as soon as we get that job to release out of the United States as we will of course see a lot of volatility. By the end of the week, we should have a much clearer picture on what’s going to happen in the Australian dollar, but as things stand right now you have to assume that it will be more of the same and therefore the 0.65 level could very well end up holding.

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About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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