AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to See Selling Pressure

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 26.10.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Aussie dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but found a 0.64 level to be far too resistive yet again. This is an area that has been a bit of a headache more than once, now that the 50-Day EMA is in that same general vicinity, it makes a certain amount of sense that we continue to see it offer a bit of a “ceiling in the market.” The Australian dollar also has to worry about the fact that the US dollar is stronger than most other currencies, and therefore the “safety trade” seems to be alive and well.

If we do break down below the 0.6275 level, it’s likely that the market could go much lower, perhaps down to the 0.62 level, followed by buying at the 0.60 level. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and take out the 0.64 level, then the market could take out not only the resistance barrier, but also the 50-Day EMA. If we do that, then the market could rise all the way to the 0.65 level, but I still suspect that there are plenty of sellers up in that area to start shorting again.

The Australian dollar of course is highly levered to risk appetite and global growth, right along with commodity markets. While commodity markets have been somewhat strong, it is more or less due to the fact that inflation is ripping through the global economy. In general, I think this continues to favor a “fade the rally” attitude, as the Aussie has been rather reliable from the short side every time it pops higher.

I have no interest in buying this market, but if we were to somehow turn around and take out the 0.66 level and the 200-Day EMA indicator, the market would have me rethinking the entire situation, but I just don’t see that happening right now, at least not in the geopolitical conditions that we find ourselves in, and of course the fact that interest rates in America continue to remain very high. With this, I favor the downside overall.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.