AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Plunges

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 08.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the trading session on Tuesday, to reach the 0.64 level, and the 50-Day EMA indicator. By doing so, we are essentially in the middle of the overall potential consolidation area that I am watching, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of hesitation. If we can continue to break down below the 0.64 level, then we have the possibility of the market breaking down to the 0.63 level underneath, but I don’t necessarily think it’s going to happen right away. A short-term bounce is possible, but that bounce will more likely than not offer a selling opportunity that traders will be willing to take advantage of.

The 0.65 level is an area that obviously causes a lot of interest, and that is where we fell from. It’s also an area that we have seen a lot of action at previously, so “market memory” was more likely than not a major part of the problem. With this in mind, I think we got a situation where it’s not until we break above the 0.65 level that you can take any bullish action seriously, it is probably worth noting that the Aussie was especially sensitive last night to the poor economic numbers that came out of China. Remember, China is by far the largest trading partner for the Australians, so it does make sense that it would have a knock on effect on their currency and economy.

Interest rates of course continue to rise in the United States, so that also has a certain amount of flow heading toward the US dollar, and then of course the geopolitical concerns around the world will continue to be a major factor as well. With all that being said, it does make a certain amount of sense that the Australian dollar was somewhat shunned, as the market participants continue to look at the world situation through the eyes of fear.

On the other hand, if we do get a little bit of good news, the Australian dollar is likely to become one of the biggest beneficiaries, which typically acts as a magnet for money when markets get celebratory.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.