XRP snapped a four-day losing streak on Friday, October 31, as spot ETF filings fueled speculation about an imminent launch of XRP-spot ETFs.
The US government shutdown stretched to 31 days. The shutdown left the SEC with a skeleton staff, delaying reviews of ETFs beyond their final decision deadlines. ETF issuers have filed S-1 amendments to circumvent the shutdown and avoid potentially lengthy delays to the launch of spot ETFs.
These filings are expected to enable XRP-spot ETFs to begin trading in November and trigger an influx of much-needed institutional money. Crucially, sticky institutional inflows into XRP-spot ETFs could significantly reduce price volatility. Reduced price volatility could boost demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset, as seen with Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitwise Invest Files S-1 Amendment Enabling Auto-Effective Date
Bitwise Invest joined a growing number of crypto-spot ETF issuers, filing an S-1 amendment to potentially allow the launch of its XRP-spot ETF in 20 days.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart shared sections of the filing, stating:
“Only the Bitwise XRP ETF has the shorter language that might allow it to launch in 20 days. But tons of issuers filing amended and updated documents past day+.”
The S-1 stated:
“This registration statement shall hereafter become effective in accordance with the provisions of Section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933.”
Bitwise’s filing came after the launch of other crypto-spot ETFs earlier this week. These ETFs did not include ‘delaying amendment’ language, allowing them to launch despite the US government shutdown. Canary Funds also filed an S-1 amendment, removing the ‘delaying amendment’ terms this week. The Canary Funds XRP-spot ETF could be the next crypto ETF to debut on Wall Street, potentially giving it a first-to-market advantage.
For context, ETF issuers are filing amended S-1s to remove a ‘delaying amendment’ clause that gives the SEC control over when the ETFs could launch. Without a ‘delaying amendment,’ registrations can become auto-effective, allowing ETFs to begin trading after a 20-day waiting period.
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Every new Bitcoin analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Bitcoin forecastsHere’s What Traders Need to Look Out for in the Coming Days
Exchanges must approve issuers’ 8-A filings before XRP-spot ETFs can launch after the 20-day waiting period. Issuers file 8-As with the exchanges to get listing approvals, allowing them to trade on the exchanges. The Bitwise and Canary Funds XRP ETFs have filed 8-As with the Nasdaq, meaning the Nasdaq must approve the paperwork before the ETFs can begin trading.
However, the timelines could vary if the US government reopens before the 20-day waiting period. The SEC has the authority to review the filings during the waiting period and could:
- Issue comments or questions to the issuers about the filings.
- Request amendments to address any issues.
- Substantial amendments could reset the 20-day clock.
- Expedite the launches if there are no issues with the amended filings.
We previously speculated that XRP-spot ETF issuers could remove ‘delaying amendment’ language, given the US Senate impasse.
Market Expectations and Institutional Inflows
Market experts expect substantial inflows into XRP-spot ETFs, potentially sending XRP to new highs. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg has been increasingly optimistic about demand for XRP-spot ETFs. He recently increased his XRP-spot ETF inflow forecast, stating:
“I may have been a little bearish. We’re going to hold to that number. If it hits that number, at least I’ll be right, and if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right because we got at least $5 billion. If we saw that kind of inflow, I think it would definitely be in the top 20 ETFs of all time, if not in the top 10.”
Notably, the REX-Ospreys XRP ETF has reported total net inflows of $124.9 million since launch. While the ETF is a hybrid, robust demand suggests strong institutional appetite for XRP-spot ETFs, reinforcing McClurg’s bullish outlook.
Technical Outlook: Key XRP Price Levels
XRP gained 2.84% on Friday, October 31, partially reversing the previous day’s 4.4% loss to close at $2.5094. The token outperformed the broader crypto market, which advanced 1.19%.
Despite snapping a four-day losing streak, XRP remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a bearish bias. However, several events could change the narrative.
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Support levels: $2.35, $2.2, $2.0, and $1.9.
- 50-day EMA resistance: $2.6606.
- 200-day EMA resistance: $2.6077.
- Resistance levels: $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, and $3.66.
Catalysts to Watch in the Coming Sessions
In the upcoming sessions, several key events could influence near-term price trends:
- A US Senate vote.
- XRP-spot ETFs (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s stance on an iShares XRP Trust.
- Blue-chip companies’ demand for XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.
Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.5
- BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
- The US government shutdown continues, delaying the launch of XRP-spot ETFs.
- The US Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
- Blue-chip companies downplay interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
- OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
- SWIFT maintains its market share in the global remittance sector, limiting Ripple’s market access.
These bearish scenarios could push XRP toward $2.35, bringing the $2.2 support level into play. If breached, the $2.0 would be the next key support level.
Despite the rebound from sub-$2.2 levels, the descending channel revealed repeated tests of upper resistance in early October. However, each breakout broke down at a lower price level. See the chart below for reference.
Bullish Scenario: Path to $3 Gains Traction
- The US Senate impasse ends.
- BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC greenlights XRP-spot ETFs.
- Blue-chip companies increase XRP holdings for treasury reserve purposes, and Main Street adopts Ripple technology.
- Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Market Structure Bill advances on Capitol Hill.
These bullish events could send XRP toward $2.62, allowing buyers to target $2.80. A sustained move through $2.80 may pave the way toward the $3.0 psychological level and open the door to testing the all-time high of $3.66.
Despite October’s loss, XRP continues to trade within a narrowing range ahead of key events. See the chart below. The current structure suggests an imminent move, with the US Senate, the SEC, and the OCC in focus. A break above the upper band will be key for XRP to retest the $3.0 level.
Outlook: Tailwinds Signal Bullish Momentum
XRP’s near-term trajectory will now hinge on Capitol Hill and the timing of XRP-spot ETF launches.
The token slid 11.84% in October, cutting year-to-date gains to just 19.71%. However, the launch of XRP-spot ETFs and crypto-friendly legislation, including the passing of the Market Structure Bill, could send the token to new highs.
