Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bull Rally Challenges Swing High

Rally Tests Key Resistance

Natural gas advanced with conviction to a high of $4.16 on Friday, directly challenging resistance at the $4.15 swing high from June. An intraday pullback followed, trimming some gains, but the day’s low at $4.02 barely dipped into Thursday’s range — a shallow overlap that underscores robust buyer interest. Trading continues in the top of the day’s range, with a likely green close in the upper half of the day’s price range. This positions natural gas in a firmly bullish stance within the weekly structure, likely ending near the week’s highs and reflecting sustained demand.

Close Strength Indicator

A daily close above the 50% level of the day’s range — at $4.09 — would signal stronger bullish conviction than a finish below it. Such a close would reinforce the weekly momentum and support expectations for continued upward pressure in the near term, especially after the shallow pullback.

Resistance Zone Defined

The $4.15 June swing high anchors a resistance zone extending to the 161.8% golden ratio projected target for a rising ABCD pattern at $3.95. In this pattern, the CD leg measures 161.8% of the prior AB upswing. Price is clearly getting extended, so this area could prompt a pullback or consolidation as sellers step in to defend.

Upside Path and Targets

It remains uncertain whether natural gas will overshoot the swing high to reach the $3.95 ABCD target before pausing. Given the target’s proximity, it could be hit quickly before meaningful resistance emerges. Traders should stay vigilant for signs of exhaustion or reversal near this level, as extended moves often see profit-taking.

Downside Risk Levels

A bearish correction, if it develops before a new trend high, would first signal on a drop below today’s $4.02 low. Tuesday’s $3.75 low stands as a key support level. A break there opens lower tests, with the 200-day average at $3.46 marking maximum downside. A prior weekly resistance shelf between $3.59 and $3.55 may also provide support if reached.

Outlook

The $4.09 close is pivotal — above it targets $3.95, below risks $4.02. The June high test favors bulls as long as $3.75 holds. Watch for ABCD completion or early pullback signs — $3.46 caps downside, but momentum strongly leans higher in the short term. The shallow dip and weekly strength support continuation if support holds.

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