Oil News: All Eyes on OPEC+ as Traders Brace for December Supply Decision

Crude Oil Prices Slide as Supply Risks Fade, Market Eyes OPEC+ Policy Decision

Light crude oil futures posted modest losses last week, with WTI settling at $60.98 per barrel, down 0.85%, as a mix of geopolitical de-escalation, rising supply, and cautious demand forecasts pressured sentiment.

Despite occasional price pops on headline risk—such as unfounded reports of a U.S. strike on Venezuela—traders largely refocused on supply fundamentals and signals from OPEC+ ahead of its pivotal Sunday meeting.

Russian Sanctions Prove Hollow as Oil Flows Continue

Traders initially bid up prices on fears that U.S. sanctions on Russian majors Rosneft and Lukoil could disrupt global flows. However, those gains quickly reversed as it became clear that the measures were more symbolic than structural.

Russian exports continued largely uninterrupted, with India and China pausing only short-term purchases. Lukoil’s decision to divest international assets and use of shadow fleets underscored Moscow’s intent to maintain market access.

Inventory Draws Offer Temporary Relief

U.S. stockpile data provided some near-term support. The EIA reported a 6.86 million barrel draw in crude inventories—far exceeding expectations—while gasoline and distillate stocks also declined sharply. But the bullish surprise failed to shift the broader tone, as traders remained more focused on oversupply risks, reinforced by lackluster economic signals out of China and a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Supply Expansion Outpaces Demand Recovery

Oversupply concerns gained traction after data showed global producers have added over 2.7 million bpd in recent months, accounting for roughly 2.5% of global output. Saudi Arabia, in particular, raised August exports to a six-month high of 6.407 million bpd, with additional increases projected for December. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production hit a record 13.6 million bpd, adding to the structural imbalance in the market.

OPEC+ Seen Leaning Toward Modest Output Increase

The market’s focus is now squarely on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. Sources indicate the group is considering a modest supply increase of around 137,000 bpd in December.

This move would signal confidence in the group’s spare capacity and intent to reclaim market share amid resilient Russian exports and fading sanction impacts. However, only Saudi Arabia appears positioned to meaningfully lift production, limiting the practical effect of any quota adjustments.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Bias Ahead of OPEC+ Decision

Looking ahead, the oil market remains tilted bearish. Rising supply, fading risk premiums, and capped upside from recent demand-side developments point to continued downside pressure.

Unless OPEC+ surprises with a firmer supply restraint or demand rebounds meaningfully, traders are likely to treat any rallies as selling opportunities. The group’s policy decision on Sunday will be the key catalyst to watch next week.

Technically, the trend is still down but the previous week’s closing price reversal bottom is still in play,  suggesting a neutral-to-bearish trade.

Bullish traders are hoping for a flip to the strong side of the 52-week moving average at $62.30. Overtaking this indicator and the long-term pivot at $63.74 will put the market in a strong position for further gains with $65.95 the preliminary target price.

Bearish traders are reading the inability to overcome the 52-week moving average as a sign of weakness and selling pressure. They are hoping for a breakdown under the 61.8% level at $59.44. If this fails as support, the closing price reversal bottom at $55.96 will hit the radar.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.