AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Rallies After CPI Numbers in America

AUD/USD Forecast Video for 15.11.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar rallied significantly during the course of the trading session here on Tuesday, as the CPI numbers came out cooler than anticipated in America. This and the US dollar falling, and it now looks as if we are going to get a move to the upside given enough time. All things being equal, the 0.65 level above probably offers a significant amount of resistance. In that area, I’ll be watching the Australian dollar very closely, because I think we could see some type of reaction, assuming that we get there.

Underneath, we have the 50-Day EMA sitting around the 0.64 level, which has essentially been “fair value” in this consolidation range that we are currently trading. The top of the range is the previously mentioned 0.65 level, with a 0.63 level underneath offering support. Because of this, I think we will continue to see a lot of choppy behavior, but I think the volatility will probably pick up, not drop at this point. This will be mainly due to the fact that a lot of traders will be out there trying to guess what the Federal Reserve is going to do going forward, and therefore I think it’s probably a situation where the market will continue to be very noisy.

If we do break above the 0.6550 level on a daily close, then I think the Aussie dollar very well could turn the overall trend around and bring to the upside. All things being equal, this is a situation where the market will continue to see a lot of external factors, not the least of which of course will be the geopolitical concerns that could drive more money into the US dollar.

With that being the case, I think you get a situation where you have to be very cautious with your position sizing, but if and when we finally break out of this consolidation area, then you might be able to get a little bit more aggressive. Until then, you have to be somewhat cautious and recognize that we have a situation where the market is going to continue to be erratic at best.

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