AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – New Sellers Waiting at .7484 – .7499

The Australian Dollar posted a minor closing price reversal bottom on Wednesday after hitting its lowest level since October 19. The catalyst behind the move was a less-hawkish monetary policy statement by the Federal Reserve. The Fed announced it would start unwinding its pandemic-era stimulus as widely expected, but held to its belief that high inflation was “transitory” and likely not require a rapid rise in interest rates.

On Monday, the AUD/USD settled at .7449, up 0.0022 or +0.29%.

Earlier in the week on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) abandoned its short-term yield target and dropped its expectation of holding rates record lows until 2024, though the Aussie fell because the bank also pushed back on aggressive pricing for 2022 hikes.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7412 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through .7556 will change the main trend to up.

Minor support is a 50% level at .7440. This is followed by a long-term Fibonacci level at .7379 and a short-term retracement zone at .7363 to .7317.

The new minor range is .7556 to .7412. Its 50% level at .7484 is the first upside target. This is followed by a long-term 50% level at .7499.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the AUD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7440.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .7440 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into .7484 – .7499.

Since the trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of .7484 – .7499. Overcoming .7499, however, will indicate the buying is getting stronger with .7556 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .7440 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into .7412.

Taking out .7412 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a further decline into .7379, followed by .7363 to .7317.

Look for aggressive counter-trend buyers on a pullback into .7363 to .7317.