AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Straddling Fib Level at .7743 Ahead of RBA Announcement

The Australian Dollar is trading lower and rangebound on Monday as investors prepare for a slew of economic data early Tuesday.

The Australian Current Account is expected to come in at -12.3 Billion, down from -9.1 Billion. Retail Sales are forecast to have grown by 0.4%, up substantially from -0.5%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. Afterwards, it will release its Rate Statement.

At 1634 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7729, down 0.0018 or -0.23%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7712 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The AUD/USD is down 11 days from its last main top at .7988. This puts it in the window of time for a potential closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend will change to up on a trade through .7893.

The main range is .7501 to .8135. Its retracement zone at .7818 to .7743 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. The AUD/USD has been straddling the lower or Fib level of this range at .7743 the last three days.

The short-term range is .7988 to .7712. If there is a rally then its retracement zone at .7850 to .7883 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current trade, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .7743.

A sustained move over .7743 will indicate the presence of buyers. This move could create the upside momentum needed to challenge .7818, followed by .7850 to .7883.

A sustained move under .7743 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the Aussie into .7712. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the December 8 main bottom at .7501 the next major target.