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James Hyerczyk

The Australian Dollar is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday amid rising risk aversion. Risk appetite took a hit due to worries about a wide-ranging dispute between the United States and China over the control of advanced technologies and the protection of civil liberties in Hong Kong.

At 11:07 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .6978, down 0.0029 or -0.41%.

The Aussie was also pressured after the country’s jobless rate jumped to the highest level since the late 1990s. Losses may have been limited by the news that China’s economy rebounded more than expected in the second quarter from a record contraction.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7038 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through the nearest main bottom at .6833.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through .6921 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is .6921 to .7038. Its 50% level at .6979 is potential support. It could control the direction of the Forex pair today.

The short-term range is .7065 to .6777. Its 50% level at .6921 is also an important support level. It formed a support cluster with the minor bottom on Tuesday.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6978, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at .6979.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6979 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for retest of .7038. Taking out this level could trigger a rally into the July 19, 2019 main top at .7082.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6979 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a fast break into .6921. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next potential targets a series of main bottoms at .6833, .6811, .6785 and .6777.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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